The report seeks to highlight the major economic mortgage drivers along with CRT Performance and an origination quality index both derived from Freddie Mac’s ACIS® & STACR® Programs.
The latest quarterly economic indicators reflect steady growth across key areas. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) continued to demonstrate strength, expanding by 0.6% during the quarter and 2.4% on an annual basis (see: Gross Domestic Product). The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% (see: Unemployment Rate). Personal income per capita rose further, reaching an all-time high of $73.3K per household (see: Personal Income per Capita). Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate declined slightly to 62.4% (-0.1%) but remains in line with levels observed from 2015 to 2018 (see: Labor Force Participation Rate).
Recent market volatility associated with tariff policy has led the bond market to price in 4–5 rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2025. However, Federal Reserve commentary indicates a data-driven, wait-and-see approach. Ten-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates remain near recent highs (see: Mortgage Rate Developments). Quarterly GSE securitization volumes remain close to 10-year lows. Freddie Mac’s market share has steadily increased and currently stands at 54%. The estimated CRT-eligible share of new securitizations remains stable, near the all-time high of 80% (see: Origination Volume).
Despite subdued origination volumes and elevated mortgage rates, home prices continued to rise throughout 2024 and into 2025. The national house price index increased by 3.4% year-over-year and 0.5% quarter-over-quarter, reaching a new high (see: National House Price Change). On an annual basis, 47 of 51 states (including D.C.) reported home price appreciation, ranging from -3.5% in Washington D.C. to 9.9% in Wyoming. The strongest growth has occurred along the East Coast, particularly in the Northeast (see: Annual State Level House Price Change).