The report seeks to highlight the major economic mortgage drivers along with CRT Performance and an origination quality index both derived from Freddie Mac's ACIS® & STACR® Programs.
The latest quarterly economic indicators point to a stable environment. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declines slightly by 0.1% for the quarter and 0.5% year-over-year (see: Gross Domestic Product). The unemployment rate holds steady at 4.1% (see: Unemployment Rate). Personal income per capita continues to rise, reaching a record high of $74.5K per household (see: Personal Income per Capita). The labor force participation rate edges down to 62.3% (-0.1%) but remains consistent with levels seen from 2015 to 2018 (see: Labor Force Participation Rate). As market volatility related to tariff policy subsides, the bond market is now pricing in two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025. However, Federal Reserve commentary continues to emphasize a data-dependent, wait-and-see stance. Ten-year Treasury yields and mortgage rates currently sit 50 basis points below recent highs (see: Mortgage Rate Developments).
Quarterly GSE securitization volumes are near 10-year lows, while Freddie Mac's market share remains steady at over 50%. The estimated CRT-eligible share of new securitizations also holds near the all-time high of 80% (see: Origination Volume).
Home prices declined slightly by 0.7% in the latest quarter but rose 2.2% year-over-year (see: National House Price Change). On an annual basis, 45 of 51 states (including Washington, D.C.) report home price appreciation, ranging from -4.2% in D.C. to 7.4% in New York. The strongest growth is concentrated along the East Coast, particularly in the Northeast (see: Annual State Level House Price Change).
To request a version of the full report and the special segment, please reach out to a member of the mortgage team.