The first half of 2026 featured a high volume of impactful natural catastrophe events that resulted in widespread societal disruption. However, this didn't translate into materially abnormal economic or insured losses.
Notably, H1 2026 recorded the lowest first-half economic loss total since 2020 and the lowest first-half insured loss total since 2019. In addition, the absence of a major catastrophe generating more than USD10 billion in insured losses extended a streak of five consecutive quarters without such an event, highlighting the depth of available capital across the reinsurance market.
While overall losses remained below average, events such as the catastrophic Venezuela earthquake sequence, record-breaking European heatwaves and widespread severe convective storm activity across North America underscore that below-average industry losses do not necessarily equate to reduced societal risk. As the industry approaches the peak tropical cyclone season, El Niño conditions have officially arrived and are expected to strengthen during the remainder of the year, creating important considerations for catastrophe risk during the second half of 2026.
Other key takeaways from the report include:
- H1 global natural catastrophe events resulted in USD142 billion in economic losses and USD46 billion in insured losses, both below long-term averages.
- Global catastrophe activity generated 30 billion-dollar economic loss events and 11 billion-dollar insured loss events during the first half of 2026.
- El Niño conditions have officially arrived, with NOAA indicating at least a 63% chance of "very strong" intensity by year-end.
- The Venezuela earthquake sequence, European heatwaves and North American severe convective storms highlight the continued volatility of catastrophe risk.