The first nine months of 2026 were characterized by a near-average frequency of natural catastrophe events, but a continued absence of major peak-loss disasters.
Global economic losses reached at least USD242 billion through September, with approximately USD92 billion covered by private insurers and public insurance entities. These were the lowest Q1-Q3 economic and insured loss totals since 2015 and 2019 respectively.
Q3 also marked the sixth consecutive quarter without an individual natural catastrophe generating more than USD10 billion in insured losses. This comparatively favorable loss experience has supported strong industry earnings, robust capital positions and substantial reinsurance capacity ahead of the January 2027 renewals.
However, while 2026 has thus far been characterized by a notable absence of peak-loss events, we continue to see substantial ongoing high-frequency peril activity globally, particularly around severe convective storm, wildfire, and flood.
In addition, the underlying drivers of catastrophe risk continue to intensify — loss costs continue to be driven up by elevated inflation, increasing exposure growth and a multitude of other non-hazard factors.
Drawing on insights from Gallagher Re experts, the wider Gallagher group and leading scientific and academic sources, the report explores the physical, financial and socioeconomic factors influencing catastrophe losses. It also considers the emergence of a potentially very strong El Niño and its economic implications for insurers, including insights into agriculture, energy, water resources and global supply chains.
Other takeaways from the report include:
- USD242 billion in global economic losses and USD92 billion in insured losses through Q3, both below the long-term averages.
- 54 billion-dollar economic loss events and 24 billion-dollar insured loss events, both close to their decadal averages.
- Severe convective storms generated nearly 60% of global insured losses, including more than USD43 billion in the United States and three billion-dollar loss events in Europe over the summer months.
- Exceptional heat, drought and wildfire activity affected large parts of Europe, North America and Asia.
- The Venezuela and Colombia earthquakes were the two costliest economic loss events globally during the first nine months of the year.
- The rapid development of El Niño is creating important considerations for catastrophe exposure, operational readiness and portfolio management heading into 2027.