In a new extract from Gallagher Re's H1 Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, Gallagher Re natural catastrophe specialists examine why El Niño should be viewed as a probabilistic risk signal rather than a guarantee of a quiet season.
The whitepaper explores how ENSO influences hurricane frequency, storm intensity, regional landfall probabilities and global tropical cyclone activity — as well as the strategic implications for underwriting, portfolio management and reinsurance purchasing during the 2026 hurricane season.
Key findings include:
- El Niño reduces hurricane activity on average but doesn't eliminate the risk of severe landfalls or significant losses.
- Historic outlier seasons demonstrate that a single storm can define an entire year for insurers and reinsurers.
- Warm Atlantic waters may support storm intensification even during El Niño conditions.
- Climate signals can redistribute risk geographically, not just reduce overall activity, with a potential shift towards the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast under current conditions.
- Current market conditions present opportunities for proactive risk transfer and capital management during the hurricane season.
- Preparedness, disciplined underwriting and prudent capital management remain essential regardless of seasonal forecasts.
Overall, the analysis reinforces the importance of avoiding an overreliance on seasonal averages. The lessons from past hurricane seasons are clear: while El Niño shifts the odds toward fewer storms and lower average losses, it doesn't eliminate the possibility of severe landfalls or extreme financial outcomes.
Despite this, there are opportunities available in the market for those making proactive risk-transfer decisions.
Read the whitepaper to discover the full insights.