Key insights

  • Criminals are using tools like double-brokering, GPS jammers and automatic identification system (AIS) spoofing for cargo theft — even rerouting entire shipments.
  • Organized crime's knowledge of supply chain vulnerabilities — and how to exploit them — is deepening.
  • Gangs are using impersonation and document forgery to carry out heists that provide large financial rewards for relatively low risk.
  • Current wordings and exclusions within policies could mean that insurance may not respond as expected when the loss involves hacking or rerouting.
  • There's an urgent need for companies to adapt their risk management strategies to the changing the modus operandi (MO) of criminals in the supply chain.

A more interconnected world has changed the MO of organized cargo crime, with digital technology aiding security and criminality.

The threat of cargo theft has been a risk since people first began moving goods from place to place. But while the threat has remained constant, we're entering a new era of risk and criminality — one that mandates redefining the existing strategies for preventing cargo thefts.

A digital arms race is underway between supply chain companies and gangs seeking to circumvent their systems. There's an urgent need for companies to adapt security and risk management strategies to build resilience to these new threats, particularly as AI is increasingly leveraged to perpetrate more convincing frauds.

For businesses, what's the penalty for cargo thefts? Billions in losses, says the Transported Asset Protection Association (TAPA). To put the issue in perspective, from 2022 to 2024, TAPA's EMEA Intelligence System recorded 157,421 incidents of cargo theft across 129 countries.

Keeping up in the digital arms race

From a theft loss perspective, the ability to exploit technology has increased the severity of claims.

The US is facing the most severe wave of cargo theft in modern times, according to data from the National Insurance Crime Bureau (NICB), which puts annual losses at USD35 billion for 2024, a 27% increase year-on-year. 2025 is set to see another double-digit rise in cargo theft losses across the country.

While evolving business technology has made transporting goods between locations faster and more efficient, it also notes that these advancements have created gaps in security. NICB warns that technology can be exploited to facilitate fraudulent or fictitious pickups, fictitious carriers and cyber-enabled logistics manipulation.

"Issues like unpaid invoices or undelivered goods tend to be noticed quickly and usually draw immediate attention," says Florence Tully, UK operations director, Marine, Gallagher Specialty. "Such cases will result in a few claims, but they will likely be of smaller value.

"However, if you have a warehouse full of goods and someone has hacked into your system, allowing items to leave the warehouse without proper checks, you could face significant losses — ranging from USD20 million to USD50 million. You might think everything was legitimate, only to discover months later that you were hacked."

In the automotive industry, the increased trend of containerized shipments of vehicles, which allows multiple vehicles to be shipped in one container, was designed to improve security. But when it comes to technology-driven theft, an entire container may be rerouted, greatly changing the risk profile.

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Previously, if someone wanted to steal four cars, they would need four people to do it. Now, they only need one person and one container to steal multiple cars at once: Higher risk can lead to greater reward.
Florence Tully, UK operations director, Marine, Gallagher Specialty

Double-brokering and GPS jammers: Common tactics of tech-equipped cargo thieves

While cargo thefts continue to pose a fundamental threat to businesses and global supply chains, the way in which heists are being perpetrated is changing significantly. Logistics security firms note a clear shift in how criminals use technology and AI as a weapon to steal and intercept goods in transit.

"Cargo thieves are technologically savvy and logistics-minded, using their prior experience (or inside sources) to locate and exploit supply chain vulnerabilities," according to NICB.

Tech-savvy crimes in the supply chain

Criminals are leveraging technology not just to steal goods, but to outsmart the systems meant to protect them. As data becomes a prime target, resilience demands smarter, layered defenses.

Alec Russell, managing director of Marine Cargo at Gallagher Specialty, says criminals are continually working to overcome the technologies companies are using to enhance security for cargo theft prevention.

"The fundamental risks remain largely the same as they were 20 to 30 years ago," he explains. "While new technologies have changed the methods of theft, they have also helped protect goods. However, these technologies are not infallible. They allow us to understand events in real-time, but we must still understand how to effectively mitigate risks with this real-time information."

Interestingly, raw data itself is emerging as a prime target, rising in the ranks of what's considered the most stolen cargo today — especially by the more tech-savvy cargo thieves.

James Horn, head of Insurance Brokerage at Vanguard Tech, adds that "the nature of cargo loss is shifting: Once dominated by physical damage and theft, it's now driven by data breaches, supply chain fragility and geopolitical tension."

Blending legacy and new technologies reflects the maritime industry's effort to balance modernization with resilience.

"Experienced navigators still rely on traditional methods alongside modern systems. The trend toward AIS-independent navigation solutions reflects a broader push for redundancy and cybersecurity in maritime operations."

Cargo theft on the move, Mission Impossible style

For haulage companies, nearly two-thirds of all cargo crime, especially cargo theft, occurs when trucks are parked and left unattended — particularly in unsecured locations, such as service and rest stations.
But freight theft can happen on the move. With one dangerous technique, criminals take advantage of adaptive cruise control in a maneuver that requires several vehicles moving in convoy at the same speed. Cargo thieves climb onto the hood of an adapted car, so closely behind a truck that the driver can't see them, and crowbar their way in.
Typically, a second vehicle will pull in front of the moving truck to control how fast it moves while the heist is taking place. A third vehicle — typically a van — pulls up alongside, serving two purposes: thieves can quickly transfer the cargo, and the fleet driver is prevented from switching lanes.
"[This] is one of the more audacious types of cargo thefts, becoming more common in mainland Europe and the UK," says Mark Allison, director at WK Webster, a Gallagher Bassett company. "In a recent investigation carried out by WK Webster, we found marks in the dirt on the truck where someone had climbed from a moving vehicle and over the secured tail lift to gain access to the back of the vehicle. It shows that drivers need to always be vigilant, even when on the move."

Ripe for exploitation: Data and fraud in the end-to-end supply chain

Because of the large numbers of companies involved in end-to-end supply chains and the high level of outsourcing, cyber threats are one of the fastest-growing areas of risk. Losses are also rising due to the increasing use of fraud to carry out cargo crimes, aided significantly by technology.

"If we look at future trends, it's only going to get more challenging," says Tully of Gallagher. "We have big data, and through it you're telling everyone what's going on. With the integration of AI and blockchain technologies in all supply chains, the situation has the potential to worsen.

"As processes become more automated and less reliant on human interaction, traditional methodologies may not be as effective," she continues. "This means we will need to develop new ways to ship and protect goods in transit."

In a more connected environment, criminals can exploit many different attack vectors when seeking information on where and how goods are being moved around the world — including detailed information on the level and types of security transportation and logistics firms use.

To breach supply chain vulnerabilities, hackers often target small transport providers that have less sophisticated network security.

With cargo crime generally, barriers to entry are few and the potential returns are high. Moreover, criminal gangs can carry out attacks that quickly provide large financial rewards with relatively low risk.

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Among the most persistent threats in cargo crime is narcotics (smuggling), especially in particular ports and regions.
James Horn, head of insurance brokerage at Vanguard Tech

As supply chains become more automated, traffickers increasingly exploit system loopholes — often with insider help — using methods like the rip-on/rip-off technique, where drugs are slipped into containers mid-transit and resealed with cloned customs seals to avoid detection.

The growth in strategic crime, which includes the use of deception, fraud and planning, is among the most remarkable changes in the MO of cargo criminals. It reflects organized crime's increasing knowledge of how to exploit supply chain vulnerabilities.

Methods include impersonation and document forgery, in addition to leveraging AI technologies to manipulate bills of lading and/or control remote operations.

Exclusions and policy wording confusion: Where are the gaps in cover?

The criminal use of technology and the changing risks it poses have given rise to issues around insurance coverage. Danny Pitchley, technical claims consultant at Gallagher, says the increasing incidents of fraud highlight brokers' concerns over insurers' approach to claims.

"The biggest trend we're seeing in claims and thefts in particular is identity fraud," he explains. "People impersonating someone else… [and] preventing the goods from reaching their intended destination. Consequently, this leads to fraudulent theft, and by the time the company realizes they haven't been paid, the goods have already been diverted and the cargo theft completed."

Without robust IT support and cybersecurity training, companies may find it more difficult to prevent cargo thefts and thereby access coverage that covers the broad range of threats.

While the insurance industry has come a long way in tackling the issue of "silent cyber" — cyber-related risks that aren't clearly included or excluded in traditional policies — the exclusions now being added in marine cargo policies could mean that policies may not respond as expected in future.

"We are currently assessing the exclusion clause regarding cyber attacks," Pitchley explains. "If a loss is caused specifically by a cyber attack, it will be excluded from coverage. However, if there is a theft/damage as a by-product of the cyber attack, this becomes a physical loss/damage of product."

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Cyber insurance policies may not cover physical loss or damage. But this aspect has yet to be tested in the market, as physical loss/damage claims would still be presented to cargo insurers in the first instance.
Danny Pitchley, technical claims consultant at Gallagher

How is technology transforming cargo risk management strategies?

Innovations in digital tools are reshaping how logistics companies protect goods in transit. From real-time tracking to predictive analytics, here are some key ways technology is helping firms stay ahead of threats:
Real-time tracking and monitoring. Advanced GPS tracking systems, AIS and sensors provide real-time visibility of vessels, cargo locations and conditions so firms can proactively respond to threats. Logistics teams can monitor shipments continuously, checking they're sticking to planned routes and schedules, and sending alerts if there are unexpected changes or stops, enabling quick responses.
Geofencing. Geofencing creates virtual boundaries around specific geographical areas. If a shipment enters or exits these predefined zones, instant notifications are sent to the company. Geofencing helps detect and respond to unauthorized movements of cargo, offering an early warning that criminals have rerouted shipments.
Electronic locks and sensors. These devices ensure that cargo containers remain sealed during transit. Attempts to open the containers trigger an alarm.
Data analytics. By analyzing data from various sources, companies can identify patterns and predict risks. Data helps optimize routes and resource allocation, such as using armed escorts in high-risk areas.
Infrastructure improvements. Investments in secure parking facilities, better roads and enhanced lighting and surveillance reduce in-transit supply chain vulnerabilities.

Next generation supply chain security: Staying one step ahead of the cargo criminals

Understanding how the threat landscape is changing helps logistics companies better respond.

While criminals may exploit technology, these advances also supports efforts to enhance security against supply chain vulnerabilities and reduce the overall risk of cargo theft.

Security innovation has surged in recent years, particularly for transporting high-value goods.

Advanced alarms, closed-circuit television (CCTV), GPS tracking and smart locks are improving end-to-end supply chain monitoring, often through security monitoring centers.

The supply chain for high-value goods is where much of the security innovation takes place. There's an opportunity to learn from sectors like cash in transit, which often adopt more advanced security measures first.

Technology is also enabling companies to use data to measure risks and build stronger risk management strategies within the supply chain. These insights offer more granular information on the geographic locations where criminals are most active, which goods they're targeting and, crucially, the techniques they use to steal goods in transit.

Insurance claims data is an extremely valuable resource for spotting patterns and acting. For instance, in South Africa, goods moved by rail have become such a target for cargo thieves that many companies have switched to transporting their goods by road. Despite concerns over the conditions of the road infrastructure system, transporting goods by truck is currently the less risky option.

Transportation and logistics companies are starting to recognize the issue and are taking digital threats more seriously. They're working with risk management specialists and drawing on knowledge from their broker partners to stress test different scenarios to see how their coverage will respond.

"With a reliable freight forwarder, the goal is for them to not lose either the truck or its goods, as this would damage their reputation and incur costs," Gallagher's Russell explains. "They are likely to implement additional measures to minimize risks.

"Many of these strategies are based on common sense — such as using plain packaging, changing routes frequently, utilizing GPS tracking and conducting criminal background checks on drivers," he adds. "Most of these practices have been around for about 30 years. Ultimately, there is no single solution; we simply know that cargo theft can happen at any time."

Published September 2025