Tariff-driven stockpiling and surging accumulation risk
Tariffs are further influencing global supply chains. The latest US tariff packages, combined with the Maritime Action Plan launched in February (which may introduce charges for goods imported on foreign‑built vessels), represent a profound new layer of cost and volatility for global shippers.
Despite the US Supreme Court's ruling in February 2026, current signals are that tariffs will remain part of global trade for some time to come. In response, governments have moved to secure new trade agreements with major partners to secure goods and minerals.
Where they can, businesses are de-risking supply chains and routing goods through countries with more favorable tariff regimes, which can lead to multi‑leg journeys. Manufacturers are exploring domestic production of strategic materials and accelerating import cycles ahead of tariff deadlines.
According to Gallagher's global supply chain risk research, nine out of 10 businesses are either already stockpiling or considering to do so in response to tariff and trade uncertainty.
Stockpiling has increased the demand for warehouses and storage solutions.
"There's the development of large 'near port' storage facilities built close to ports, where operators need more space to develop storage and handling capabilities for their clients," says Smith. "It changes the overall exposure picture. We've seen first-hand the change in claim patterns — with a higher frequency and severity of loss — where cargo is stored for prolonged periods."
Stockpiling can result in more significant claims when a loss occurs because the concentrations of goods vulnerable to loss from floods, fires or other events is higher. Goods sitting idle for long periods also create attractive targets for theft, especially in areas with limited security infrastructure.
"Effectively, you can de-risk in one place and pass that on to another. If a large windstorm comes through, you could get a bigger loss because you have a greater accumulation of values in single locations," says Russell.
Climate and sustainability risks: A structural threat to maritime stability
Retreating polar ice could open new global shipping routes. But those opportunities come with significant ethical, geopolitical and environmental implications, and the infrastructure to support regular Arctic shipping doesn't yet exist.
In a world of increasing weather extremes, droughts, floods and windstorms are increasingly disrupting global shipping and port operations worldwide. In 2025, insured natural catastrophe losses surpassed USD100 billion for the sixth consecutive year.
The Panama Canal crisis — driven by severe drought in 2023 and 2024 — shows how quickly climate conditions can constrain maritime trade. The drought, exacerbated by the El Niño phase of the ENSO cycle, cut daily ship crossings from 38 to an average of 22.1 Notably, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 62% chance of an El Niño developing by June-August 2026, with the potential to intensify into a "Super El Niño" during the 2026/2027 winter.
Climate disruption compounds every other risk, explains Steve Bowen, chief science officer at Gallagher Re. "Globally we have an issue of aging infrastructure that wasn't built originally to withstand a 21st century climate. The wear and tear has, in some cases, made delivery of some of these products in the supply chain more challenging."
"At the same time, climate change is causing events to become more extreme and we're starting to see events in areas that historically may not have previously been considered a risk," he continues. "Did anyone realistically expect a multibillion-dollar flood in Dubai last year? Businesses have to start thinking about events that weren't part of the historical record becoming more plausible today."
According to research from the University of Oxford, most of the world's 1,340 major ports weren't designed with climate change in mind.2
The exposure is significant: more than 70% of global terminals lie in areas exposed to sea‑level rise or severe weather, and port downtime puts an estimated USD67 billion of global shipping trade at risk annually.3
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Globally we have an issue of aging infrastructure that wasn't built originally to withstand a 21st century climate.
Steve Bowen, chief science officer, Gallagher Re
"A vast number of ports around the world find themselves struggling with ageing infrastructure which is both more susceptible to changing environmental trends as well as evolving cargo demands," says James Richardson, executive director, Marine at Gallagher Specialty. "This infrastructure is both highly vulnerable and costly to retrofit."
Lack of consensus on future fuels hinders infrastructure development
In April 2025, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) released its framework to achieve net zero by 2050.4 It requires cargo ships over 5,000 gross tonnage to pay a fee if their CO₂ emissions exceed a threshold level and, in effect, rewards vessels that use cleaner fuels. However, efforts by the IMO to fully ratify its Net Zero Framework earlier this year were thwarted, leaving the timetable for implementation in doubt.
While major shipowners have already placed orders for vessels which can operate on alternative fuels such as ammonia and hydrogen, most orders have been for hybrid vessels which can also operate on traditional bunker fuels.
The move towards a sustainable fuel future depends on multi-billion-dollar investment by shipowners and port operators to create the sustainable fuel infrastructure needed to service the global shipping fleet in the future. However, a lack of regulatory guidance is hindering progress.
With the global shipping industry yet to reach a consensus on the types of sustainable fuels that will drive the fleets of the future, it could create a situation where certain vessels will be restricted to certain ports due to limited access to their chosen fuel systems.
"Port operators are being asked to invest ahead of certainty," says Richardson. "Until there is greater consensus around future fuels, there is a real risk of fragmented infrastructure, uneven port readiness and assets that may not align with where demand ultimately settles."
Cargo crime in a digitized, high‑velocity supply chain
A more digital and interconnected world has changed the modus operandi of organized cargo crime, and corporations increasingly use technology within their supply chains that make them more exposed to digital and technology-enabled cargo crime.
To put the issue in perspective, from 2022 to 2024, the EMEA Intelligence System of the Transported Asset Protection Association (TAPA) recorded 157,421 incidents of cargo theft across 129 countries. Together, these crimes caused EUR2.7 billion in losses — equal to nearly EUR2.5 million in stolen goods each day.5
From a loss perspective, the ability to exploit technology is increasing the severity of claims. A fraud or payment diversion event may generate multiple smaller claims, but a compromise of a logistics system — or the manipulation of release and collection processes — can enable large volumes of goods to leave a warehouse or terminal without proper checks.
"If you have a warehouse full of goods and someone has hacked into your system, allowing items to leave the warehouse without proper checks, you could face significant losses," says Florence Tully, operations director, Marine, Gallagher Specialty. "You might think everything was legitimate, only to discover months later that you were hacked."
Changes in how high-value goods are moved can also amplify losses. For example, the growing use of containerized shipments — including for vehicles — can mean criminals no longer target single units; instead, they seek to reroute or steal an entire container, turning isolated theft into a high-severity event.
How cargo criminals exploit technology
- High-tech cargo theft: Criminals breach transportation management systems or communications to intercept and reroute shipments — sometimes without being onsite.
- Double brokering scams: Using stolen identities, fictitious carrier entities and authentic-looking documentation, organized groups bid for loads on digital freight exchanges and impersonate legitimate shippers or haulers to secure the release of cargo and divert it.
- GPS jammers and tracking disruption: Thieves use jamming devices to obstruct tracking systems, making it difficult to locate stolen cargo — even where trackers are fitted.
- Strategic cargo theft (deception-led): Criminals exploit load boards and digital tools to trick firms into handing over goods through fraudulent transactions and manipulated delivery instructions.
- Insider collusion: In some cases, criminals collaborate with insiders — sometimes including drivers — who provide route, schedule and security details that increase the probability of a successful theft.
The common thread is speed and realism: Criminals are leveraging digital systems to make fraudulent movements appear routine, exploiting the high-velocity nature of modern logistics and the sheer number of handoffs across outsourced supply chains.
Russell warns that the US freight brokerage model — fast‑moving, relationship-light and digitally mediated — has become a hotspot for cyber-enabled cargo theft: "It's very easy for bad actors to spoof. You can get a bill of lading written up instantly that looks genuine and they just hand over the cargo."
Many corporations are investing heavily in security systems, including GPS tracking, IoT sensors, smart locks, telematics and predictive software. These solutions improve strategic resilience, but also introduce new cyber and data‑integrity vulnerabilities.
Responding to a new era of global shipping risk
Geopolitical risks, climate change and digital threats are converging to create a more complex operating landscape for marine cargo.
The drivers are interdependent, nonlinear and fast moving — making global supply chain risk management all the more difficult.
For industries whose business models depend on global shipping — whether raw materials, finished products or essential components — these pressures are also a chance to differentiate and strengthen business continuity.
The global trade system is being rewritten. Companies in the shipping industry that move early — building redundancy into their supply chain design and grounding decisions in risk intelligence — will develop the strategic resilience needed to absorb future shocks.
"Resilience is the new efficiency," says Crouch. He argues that companies that invest in flexibility, strengthen risk management and contingency planning will be the ones that stand out as volatility becomes a more common feature of global trade.
"Geopolitics is back in the operating model," he says. "Leaders who treat it that way will price risk with discipline, protect continuity and keep strategic flexibility when conditions turn."
Published May 2026
