May 2024

Nearly half of the global population is set to go to the polls in more than 64 countries during the course of 2024. It is a tinderbox for civil unrest.

As tensions simmer, bitterly fought elections and disinformation are set to supercharge public angst against a backdrop of growing social inequality and polarizing discourse.

Businesses must be prepared for disruption, both directly and indirectly.

In A Year of Elections in an Unstable World — Part 1, we considered how election fever is likely to prompt an increase in AI-fueled disinformation campaigns and state-sponsored cyber attacks.

In Part 2, we look at why elections may be a key driver of political violence, and what businesses should do to protect their people, assets and operations.


  • Nearly half of the global population will participate in elections worldwide during 2024 at a time of heightened geopolitical tension.
  • The upcoming elections have several flashpoints, but civil unrest and other forms of political violence are dynamic, human perils, and events can be difficult to predict.
  • Where tensions boil over into civil unrest, businesses may face a number of threats to their people, property and operations.
  • Companies should have tested crisis management plans and contingencies in place to minimize disruption during times of turmoil.
  • As geopolitical risk rises up the boardroom agenda, demand for intelligence is set to grow.
We think there are going to be several hotspots for civil unrest going forward including populist nationalism, rising inequality, radicalism and disinformation. In their desire to get heard, voters look to the election, and if the results do not align with their expectations, the implications could be dire.
Paul Bassett, Managing Director, Crisis Management, Gallagher


CONDITIONS AND LIMITATIONS Gallagher's global operations, including a network of correspondent brokers and consultants, offers client-service capabilities in more than 130 countries around the world. This report and supporting information is not intended to provide legal or financial advice and reflects our understanding as of May 2024. It should not be regarded as a comprehensive statement of the law and/or market practice in the regions covered. You should not act upon information in this publication nor determine not to act, without first seeking specific legal and/or specialist insurance and risk management expertise. Should you require advice about your specific insurance arrangements or claim circumstances, please contact your Gallagher account representative.

© 2024 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.