This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Stock Market Volatility Recedes, Inflation Reignites in March, Manufacturing Activity Rebound Continues in March
  • The CBOE Market Volatility Index VIX ended the week at 19.5
  • U.S. CPI rose at a 3.3% annual rate in March
  • The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 52.7% in March

Top Three Market Headlines

Stock Market Volatility Recedes: With the tentative cease fire between the U.S. and Iran taking hold last week, the CBOE Market Volatility Index (aka the VIX) dropped to its lowest level since the start of the conflict in late February. The index, an options-derived measure of expected S&P 500 index volatility that is often referred to as the Wall Street fear gauge, ended the week at 19.5, close to its 20-year average of 20.1 and down approximately one-third from just over 30 in late March. On the whole, compared to prior bouts of elevated market volatility the latest episode has been relatively subdued: in April 2025, for example, the VIX briefly exceeded 50 amid the sharp tariff-induced market sell-off at that time.

Inflation Reignites in March: The U.S. Department of Labor announced last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 3.3% annual pace in March, the highest level in two years. The jump was driven largely by a surge in energy prices in the aftermath of the Iran war and the related closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, gasoline prices rose nearly 19% over the prior year, pulling overall inflation well above February's 2.4% reading. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained fairly stable, however, registering 2.6%, little changed from the prior month's 2.5% reading.

Manufacturing Activity Rebound Continues in March: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported recently that its ISM Manufacturing Index, based on surveys of business executives, registered 52.7% for the month of March. This was up slightly from 52.4% in February and represented the third straight month the index exceeded the 50% threshold that separates growth in activity from contraction. Expansion also continued in the services side of the economy, as the ISM Services Index came in at 54.0% for March, down slightly from February's 56.1% reading but remaining above 50% for the 21st consecutive month.

As of April 10, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 4.13% 5.77% 2.38% 34.65%
S&P 500 3.58% 4.45% -0.07% 31.02%
Russell 2000 3.99% 5.40% 6.33% 45.54%
MSCI EAFE 4.42% 7.42% 6.09% 36.24%
MSCI Emerging Markets 7.44% 10.85% 10.67% 53.56%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 3.24% 4.95% 9.98% 23.37%
Bloomberg Commodity -3.63% -2.20% 21.68% 37.78%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.33% 0.33% 0.29% 6.25%

US Dep't of Labor 4/10/2026, ISM 4/1/2026 & 4/6/2026, WSJ 4/10/2026, Morningstar 4/10/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.