This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Retail Sales Climb in March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell Shares Outlook, U.S. Dollar Weakness Persists
  • Retail sales rose 1.4% in March from February
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index has declined 8.4% year-to-date

Top Three Market Headlines

Retail Sales Climb in March: The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that sales at U.S. retail and food establishments rose 1.4% in March compared to February, the largest monthly increase in more than two years. This marked the second straight month of advancing sales after a 1.0% drop in January. A key contributor to the March strength was a 5.3% jump in sales at motor vehicle & parts dealers, the largest product category in the survey. Sales growth was limited across the second-largest category, internet retailers, at just +0.1%, while the next-largest group, restaurants, enjoyed a 1.8% gain.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Shares Outlook: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in a speech last week the central bank is comfortable waiting for "greater clarity" before adjusting monetary policy, citing the Trump administration's evolving policy changes and their uncertain effects on the economy. At present, said the Chairman, the U.S. economy is still in a solid position with near maximum employment, though gross domestic product (GDP) growth likely slowed in Q1 2025. At the same time, he cautioned that inflation, which has "significantly eased" from mid-2022 highs, could see at least a temporary increase from tariffs.

U.S. Dollar Weakness Persists: The U.S. dollar declined in value last week for the fourth straight week, losing 0.9% versus a basket of other currencies, as measured by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar has experienced its worst start to the year in the four-decade history of the index, down 8.9% year-to-date through last week. The selloff has accelerated since financial market volatility surged in early April, with the dollar falling 4.8% month-to-date. The weakening dollar could challenge foreign economies already facing higher tariffs by increasing the cost of their exports in U.S. dollar terms and could pressure foreign central banks to cut interest rates more aggressively to stall the strengthening of their currencies.

As of April 18, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.37% -3.99% -5.27% 7.49%
S&P 500 -1.49% -5.81% -9.83% 6.85%
Russell 2000 1.11% -6.49% -15.35% -1.88%
MSCI EAFE 4.33% -0.02% 6.84% 9.48%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.29% -2.80% 0.04% 7.49%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 3.82% -4.49% -3.62% 14.43%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.48% -3.08% 5.52% 5.71%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.91% -0.78% 1.98% 6.70%

The Federal Reserve 4/16/2025. .US Census Bureau 4/17/2025, Wall Street Journal 4/16/25, LSEG 4/18/25, FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single- member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.