This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Mixed Inflation Report for July, Durable Goods Drive Retail Sales Growth in July, Small Business Confidence Climbs in July
  • The CPI rose 2.7% on a year-over-year basis in July
  • Retail sales rose 0.5% in July
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased to 100.3 in July

Top Three Market Headlines

Mixed Inflation Report for July: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, down from a 0.3% pace in June. This put the year-over-year rise in prices at 2.7%, unchanged from June. Driving the slower pace of price gains in July was a 1.1% decline in the index for energy prices. Excluding the volatile energy and food categories, however, the "core" CPI accelerated modestly in July, rising 0.3% monthly and 3.1% on a year-over-year basis, each a touch higher than respective rates of 0.2% and 2.9% in June.

Durable Goods Drive Retail Sales Growth in July: The U.S. Census Bureau reported last Friday that sales at U.S. retail and food service establishments rose by 0.5% in July from the prior month, while the rate of growth in June was revised upward to 0.9%. Categories experiencing the largest sales increases in July included automobiles and furniture, reflecting a continued demand by consumers for durable goods. These gains were somewhat offset, however, by declines in electronics, building materials, food services, and miscellaneous store retailers. On the whole, consumer spending has remained relatively resilient in 2025 despite concerns of moderating growth due to tariffs.

Small Business Confidence Climbs in July: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported last week that its Small Business Optimism Index posted a reading of 100.3 in July. This marked the highest level in five months and the third consecutive month the index was above the 52-year average of 98. The Index's latest rise was keyed by respondents' improved assessment of business conditions and expansion opportunities. Notably, a greater percentage of business owners characterized the overall health of their business as either excellent or good compared to the prior month, and the net percent of owners expecting better business conditions jumped from 22% to 36%.

As of August 15, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.27% 3.87% 14.31% 18.86%
S&P 500 0.99% 4.09% 10.55% 17.90%
Russell 2000 3.12% 5.27% 3.39% 8.56%
MSCI EAFE 2.36% 3.43% 23.54% 19.92%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.55% 4.47% 20.42% 20.90%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 0.85% -0.14% -0.39% 0.07%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.33% -1.07% 4.40% 9.19%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.02% 0.34% 4.38% 2.90%

NFIB 8/12/2025, WSJ 8/12/2025, US Census Bureau 8/15/2025, US Dep't of Labor 8/12/2025. FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.