This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Fed Stands Firm on Policy Rate, Q2 U.S. GDP Growth Moderates, U.S. Home Prices Inch Upwards:
  • The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50% to 3.75%
  • U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q2 2026
  • Home prices across 20 key U.S. metro areas rose at a 1.6% annual rate in May

Top Three Market Headlines

Fed Stands Firm on Policy Rate: The Federal Reserve's interest rate policy committee last week held its benchmark federal funds rate target steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The policy target has remained unchanged since the last Fed rate cut enacted in December 2025. The Fed stated that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East, and noted that the unemployment rate has changed little. At the same time, New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, but also reiterated the central bank's commitment to that target.

Q2 U.S. GDP Growth Moderates: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis last week issued its advance estimate of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter of 2026. According to the report, real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate during the quarter, a slight deceleration from Q1's 2.1% pace. Consumer spending remained the primary driver of growth in Q2, while business investment also contributed positively. Offsetting these strengths were lower government spending and increased imports (which detract from the GDP calculation). Notably, underlying private-sector demand remained resilient, with real final sales to private domestic purchasers rising 3.9%, up from 1.7% in Q1.

U.S. Home Prices Inch Upwards: According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, purchase prices of single-family homes in 20 key U.S. metro areas grew by 0.2% (seasonally adjusted) in May versus the prior month, the highest rate in four months. Compared to the prior year prices rose 1.6%; while modest, this was the fastest pace in nine months. The report noted that the geographic dispersion of home price trends persisted in May, with the Northeast and Midwest outperforming while metropolitan areas in the West and Sunbelt regions remained pressured.

As of July 31, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.37% 0.08% 11.33% 22.11%
S&P 500 1.06% -0.06% 10.14% 19.56%
Russell 2000 0.05% -3.03% 18.85% 34.18%
MSCI EAFE 2.02% 1.96% 11.59% 24.33%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.36% -3.07% 20.04% 36.44%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -2.98% 2.24% 20.46% 25.20%
Bloomberg Commodity -2.07% 7.54% 22.98% 35.53%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.12% -1.30% -0.69% 2.71%

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 7/30/2026, S&P Global 7/28/26, Federal Reserve 7/29/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the ability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.