This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Core Inflation Falls to Multi-Year Low, Unemployment Rate Hits Four-Year high, Autos and Gasoline Weigh on Retail Sales Report
  • Core CPI rose at a 2.6% annual rate in November
  • The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November
  • Retail sales excluding autos and gasoline rose 0.5% in October

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Top Three Market Headlines

Core Inflation Falls to Multi-Year Low: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a 2.7% rate in November versus the prior year. This was down from a 3.0% pace in September, the last reported month for which data was reported. (CPI data was not collected during October due to the U.S. government shutdown.) Notably, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose at an annual rate of just 2.6%, down sharply from a 3.0% pace in September and the slowest increase since March of 2021.

Unemployment Rate Hits Four-Year High: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, above economists' expectation of 50,000 gains. However, there were 105,000 job losses reported for the month of October, with government layoffs driving much of the decline. Wage growth slowed to 3.5% annually in November, down from 3.8% in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, up from 4.4% in September (October data was not collected due to the government shutdown) and the highest level in over four years.

Autos and Gasoline Weigh on Retail Sales Report: In a report delayed by the government shutdown, the U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that sales at U.S. retail and food service establishments were flat in October, the lowest rate in five months. The level of sales was depressed, however, by declines in autos (-1.7%) and gasoline (-0.8%), the latter being impacted by falling gas prices. Excluding the effects of these two product categories, sales across all other businesses rose 0.5% on the month, up from a slight decline in October, with the largest impact being a 1.8% jump in internet sales.

Please note: The Weekly Financial Markets Update will not be published next Monday, December 29. We wish everyone a happy holiday season!

As of December 19, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.03% 2.63% 21.55% 21.87%
S&P 500 0.13% 2.46% 17.66% 17.99%
Russell 2000 -0.83% 4.08% 14.89% 15.42%
MSCI EAFE 0.20% 3.67% 29.73% 30.59%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.52% 2.00% 30.09% 29.42%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.51% -2.19% 2.22% 4.74%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.09% 4.87% 14.70% 17.50%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.34% 0.90% 7.09% 7.31%

WSJ 12/16/2025, US Census Bureau 12/16/2025, US Dep't of Labor 12/16/2025 and 12/18/2025, FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.