This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady to Start Year, U.S. Dollar Weakness Continues, Kevin Warsh Nominated to Chair the Federal Reserve
  • The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% — 3.75%
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is down more than 10% since the start of 2025
  • Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026

Top Three Market Headlines

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady to Start Year: Federal Reserve governors voted last week to hold the central bank's policy interest rate, the federal funds rate, unchanged at a target range of 3.50% - 3.75%. The decision to stand pat came after three consecutive quarter-point rate cuts over the last four months of 2025. In an accompanying policy statement, Fed officials said they see still inflation as somewhat elevated, yet also noted that the job market has shown signs of stabilization; as a result, they removed language referencing rising downside risks to employment.

U.S. Dollar Weakness Continues: Despite a sharp bounce on Friday, the U.S. dollar declined again last week, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the greenback versus a basket of other currencies, fell a half-percentage point. This followed a 1.8% decline in the prior week and left the index at its lowest level in almost four years. The dollar has lost more than 10% of its value since 2025 began on various concerns, including tariffs and rising U.S. debt levels. While a weaker dollar raises prices on imports into the U.S., it is advantageous for U.S. exporters as their products become cheaper to foreign buyers.

Kevin Warsh Nominated to Chair the Federal Reserve: President Donald Trump announced last week that he nominated Kevin Warsh to chair the Federal Reserve upon the expiration of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term in May. Warsh, a partner at Duquesne Family Office, previously served on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 after serving on the National Economic Council. While believed to be close to the President and supportive of further interest rate cuts in the near term, Warsh also brings a reputation as an inflation "hawk" based on views previously expressed both during and after his time as a Fed governor.

As of January 30, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.65% 2.96% 2.96% 21.37%
S&P 500 0.35% 1.45% 1.45% 15.77%
Russell 2000 -2.07% 5.35% 5.35% 14.82%
MSCI EAFE 1.56% 5.22% 5.22% 31.00%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.80% 8.85% 8.85% 42.53%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 0.77% 3.05% 3.05% 4.73%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.00% 10.36% 10.36% 22.40%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.03% 0.11% 0.11% 6.68%

Barron's 2/2/2026, The Federal Reserve 1/28/2025, Associated Press 1/30/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.