- U.S. importers may be eligible to receive approximately $130 billion in tariff refunds
- U.S. GDP grew at a 1.4% annual pace in Q4 of 2025
- U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in January
Top Three Market Headlines
Supreme Court Limits Tariff Powers: The U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling last Friday that struck down the Trump administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on trading partners. The decision impacts roughly 60% of the tariff revenue generated last year by the U.S., or approximately $130 billion, which now may be refunded to importers. The ruling, however, does not completely resolve the issue of tariffs, as levies that were applied last year based on other U.S. laws remain intact, and the administration immediately responded to the decision by announcing the imposition of additional tariffs under other trade acts.
Government Shutdown Impairs Q4 GDP Growth: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of 1.4% in Q4 of 2025. This was a deceleration from a 4.4% pace in Q3 and the slowest rate in the last three quarters. The key factor impacting Q4 growth was tumbling government spending because of the federal government shutdown, which cut the overall GDP growth rate by more than a percentage point. On the bright side, consumer spending and private investment remained sturdy, growing at 1.6% and 0.7% annualized rates, respectively.
Industrial Production Gathers Steam: U.S. industrial production rose 0.7% in January from the prior month, according to a Federal Reserve report issued last week. This was the strongest increase since February 2025 and the third consecutive monthly gain. Keying the improved activity was a 0.6% rise in manufacturing output, the fastest growth in nearly a year, supported by broad production increases across industry groups for both durable and nondurable goods. Concurrently, the capacity utilization rate rose to 76.2% in January, up measurably from 75.7% in the prior month and the highest rate in six months.