This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Consumer Sentiment Improves in January, Arctic Freeze Drives Surge in Natural Gas Prices, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Trending Down:
  • The University of Michigan of Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 56.4 in January
  • Natural gas prices surged more than 60% last week
  • Weekly initial unemployment claims were 200,000 in the week ended January 17th

Top Three Market Headlines

Consumer Sentiment Improves in January: The Index of Consumer Sentiment, published by the University of Michigan, rose 3.5 points in January to 56.4, its second straight increase and the highest reading in five months. Improved sentiment was reported across a range of consumer characteristics, including income level, age, and political affiliation. Moreover, respondents were more optimistic about both current economic conditions and future expectations. At the same time, the Index was still more than 20% off its level from a year ago, with consumers noting continued anxiety about high prices and the labor market.

Arctic Freeze Drives Surge in Natural Gas Prices: U.S. natural gas prices jumped more than 60% last week on spot trading markets (where commodities are traded for immediate delivery) amid the Arctic freeze settling over the United States. Traders expected the low temperatures and snow and ice storms to drive a sharp increase in heating demand and raise the risk of production outages. Notably, however the rally came on the heels of a sustained drop in prices over the last month, and the price at week's end, $5.04 per MMBtu (million British thermal units), remained below that recorded in early December of $5.30.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Trending Down: The Department of Labor reported last week that initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the U.S. totaled 200,000 for the week ending January 17th, virtually flat with the prior week. The reading extended a recent downward trend in applications for unemployment benefits, which can be an indicator of layoffs and the strength of the job market, over the last several months of 2025 and into 2026. Specifically, the latest four-week moving average of 201,500 is the lowest level since January of 2024, and compares to a peak of 245,000 last June.

As of January 23, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.07% 2.30% 2.30% 20.67%
S&P 500 -0.34% 1.10% 1.10% 14.49%
Russell 2000 -0.32% 7.58% 7.58% 16.89%
MSCI EAFE 0.14% 3.60% 3.60% 31.38%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.09% 6.93% 6.93% 41.89%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -2.25% 2.27% 2.27% 4.15%
Bloomberg Commodity 5.35% 9.27% 9.27% 20.42%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.07% 0.08% 0.08% 7.45%

Bloomberg 1/21/2026, Univ. of Michigan 1/23/2026, Department of Labor 1/22/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.