This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: 2025 Recap

Please join us for our Q4 2025 Gallagher Financial Markets Update webinar Thursday, January 15th at 11:00 a.m. ET

Register today!

Investors enjoyed healthy returns across a broad range of assets in 2025. Global equities overcame U.S. attempts to reorder global economic trading patterns, while bonds and commodities produced solid complementary returns.

U.S. Equities: U.S. equities posted double-digit returns for the third straight year. After enduring a sharp early-year correction induced by U.S. tariff announcements, stocks rebounded vigorously on resilient economic data, strong corporate earnings growth, and Federal Reserve rate cuts. Large-capitalization stocks once again led the pack (S&P 500 index, +17.9%), though small cap stocks also benefited as market participation broadened (Russell 2000 index, +12.8%). Similarly, while growth stocks once again shined (Russell 1000 Growth index, +18.6%), value stocks weren't far behind (Russell 1000 Value index, +15.9%).

International Equities: International equities had a stellar year, with the MSCI ACWI ex USA index generating a 32.4% return, as investors looked past tariff turmoil and embraced relatively cheaper valuations. Returns to U.S. investors were boosted by depreciation of the U.S. dollar, which declined 9.4% during the year.1 Hearty gains were seen across both developed markets (MSCI EAFE index, +31.2%) and emerging markets (MSCI Emerging Markets index, +33.6%). (All international stock index returns are quoted in U.S. dollar terms.)

Fixed Income: Bonds produced respectable returns in 2025 (Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate index, +7.3%), supported by a downward drift in Treasury bond yields — more so among shorter- and intermediate-term maturities as the yield curve steepened — and sustained tight credit spreads on corporate issues.

Commodities: Commodities collectively posted solid returns in 2025 (Bloomberg Commodity index, +15.8%), keyed by a forceful rally in gold, which surged 64%2 and hit multiple new all-time highs.

As of December 31, 2025 Month-to-Date Quarter-to-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.04% 3.29% 22.34%
S&P 500 0.06% 2.66% 17.88%
Russell 2000 -0.58% 2.19% 12.81%
MSCI EAFE 3.00% 4.86% 31.22%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.99% 4.73% 33.57%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -2.31% -1.56% 2.88%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.32% 5.85% 15.77%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate -0.15% 1.10% 7.30%

Relative to a basket of major currencies, as measured by the ICE US Dollar Index. 2Based on front-month futures prices. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.