This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Sustained Business Activity Growth in June, June Jobs Report Misses Expectations, Fed Minutes Reveal Split Expectations
  • The ISM Services Index registered 54.0% in June
  • The U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June
  • The current federal funds rate target range is 3.50% to 3.75%

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Top Three Market Headlines

Sustained Business Activity Growth in June: The latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) indicated that business activity in both the services and manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy continued expanding in June. The ISM Services Index came in at 54.0%, down modestly from 54.5% in May but remaining firmly above the 50% threshold that separates expansion of business activity from contraction for the 24th consecutive month. The ISM Manufacturing Index registered 53.3% for the month, down slightly from 54.0% in May but reflecting the 6th consecutive month of expansion.

June Jobs Report Misses Expectations: The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, the U.S. Department of Labor reported prior to the Independence Day holiday, short of economists' consensus estimate of 113,000 and the lowest tally in four months. At the same time, previously reported gains over the preceding two months were revised down by a total of 74,000. Sectors that saw the largest number of additions in June included professional & business services and health care, though the leisure & hospitality sector reported 61,000 losses. Concurrently, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.2% from 4.3% in May.

Fed Minutes Reveal Split Expectations: Minutes were released last week from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting in mid-June, at which the central bank's policy-setting committee maintained the federal funds rate at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. While all officials voted to keep the policy rate unchanged at this time, there were diverging views on the future target. Some Fed governors supported a view that the rate would remain within or below the current target range, while others assessed that the rate would need to rise by year-end. A key variable influencing the Fed's decision will be the future path of inflation, which meeting participants noted remains above the bank's 2% long-term objective.

As of July 10, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.26% 0.58% 11.90% 23.22%
S&P 500 1.26% 1.05% 11.36% 22.07%
Russell 2000 -0.60% -1.52% 20.71% 33.20%
MSCI EAFE -1.37% 0.30% 9.77% 20.08%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.74% -1.73% 21.70% 39.82%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.86% 0.63% 18.57% 21.77%
Bloomberg Commodity 3.15% 3.08% 17.88% 27.81%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.44% -0.58% 0.04% 3.61%

Institute for Supply Management 7/1/2026 & 7/6/2026, USW Bureau of Labor Statistics 7/2/2026, Federal Reserve 7/8/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the ability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.