This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Constant Job Growth in June, Mixed Results for Business Activity Surveys, S&P 500 Earnings Growth Expected to Slow
  • The U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June
  • The ISM Services index registered 50.8% in June
  • Q2 2025 S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 5.0%

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Top Three Market Headlines

Constant Job Growth in June: The U.S. Department of Labor reported just prior to the Independence Day holiday that the U.S. economy added 147,000 jobs in June. This was in line with the previous two months — 144,000 in May and 158,000 in April — both of which were adjusted upwards from prior estimates. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.1% in June, down from 4.2% in May. Sectors that saw the most job gains in June were healthcare and state & local government. The federal government, on the other hand, continued to bleed jobs, losing 7,000 in June and 69,000 in aggregate since January.

Mixed Results for Business Activity Surveys: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported recently that its ISM Manufacturing Index registered 49.0% in June, up marginally from 48.5% in May but still below the 50% threshold that differentiates expansion of business activity from contraction. This was the fourth straight sub-50% reading for the index. On the services side of the economy, an increase in new orders helped push the ISM Services Index back into expansion territory at 50.8% in June, an increase from 49.9% in May. Over the last year, the Services index has surpassed 50% in 11 out of 12 months.

S&P 500 Earnings Growth Expected to Slow: With earnings reporting season set to kick off this week, the projected Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) growth rate for S&P 500 companies stands at 5.0% (year-over-year), based on Wall Street analysts' estimates, according to FactSet. If achieved, this would be the eighth straight quarter of earnings growth, but would represent a slowdown from 7.8% in Q1 and would be the slowest pace since Q4 2023 (+4.0%). The highest EPS growth rates for Q2 are expected to occur in the Communication Services and Information Technology sectors (29% and 17%, respectively), while Energy sector companies are expected to show a decline of 26%.

As of Julu 11, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.33% 0.55% 10.65% 13.58%
S&P 500 -0.29% 0.92% 7.18% 13.59%
Russell 2000 -0.62% 2.78% 0.94% 6.61%
MSCI EAFE -0.23% -0.22% 19.18% 13.14%
MSCI Emerging Markets -0.16% 0.69% 16.07% 11.75%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.45% 0.63% 0.37% 6.00%
Bloomberg Commodity 0.52% 1.90% 7.54% 7.82%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.37% -0.81% 3.18% 3.86%

ISM 7/01/2025 and 7/03/2025, US Bureau of Labor Statistics 7/3/2025, FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.