This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Inflation Moderates in June as Energy Prices Decline, Retail Sales Rise at Slower Pace in June, Small Business Optimism Perks Up in June
  • The Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% over the prior year in June
  • U.S retail sales grew by 0.2% last month
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rose to 97.4 in June

Top Three Market Headlines

Inflation Moderates in June as Energy Prices Decline: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.4% in June from the prior month, marking the first monthly drop in over two years, largely driven by a sharp decrease in gasoline prices. On a year-over-year basis, the CPI rose 3.5% on the month, decelerating from 4.2% in May. Pricing pressures also eased outside of the volatile food and energy categories, as the "core" CPI was flat on the month, the lowest monthly pace in more than five years, and rose 2.6% on an annual basis, down from 2.9% in May.

Retail Sales Rise at Slower Pace in June: The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that sales at U.S. retail and food service establishments rose 0.2% in June, slower than the 1.0% growth rate registered in May. The largest contributor to this decrease was less spending on gasoline because of lower prices. On the other hand, there were signs of consumer strength, including sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers growing 1.9% from the previous month and spending at electronic and appliance stores growing 0.8%. Excluding autos and fuel, sales rose at a 0.4% pace, the ninth straight positive month of growth but the slowest pace in five months.

Small Business Optimism Perks Up in June: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported last week that its Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4, its highest level in four months and nearing its 52-year average of 98. The index's increase was led by a more positive outlook for business conditions, which improved for the first time this year. According to the survey, inflation remained a top concern facing businesses, with 21% of owners citing it as their single most important business problem.

As of July 17, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -1.57% -1.00% 10.14% 21.26%
S&P 500 -1.55% -0.52% 9.64% 19.85%
Russell 2000 -0.51% -2.03% 20.09% 33.07%
MSCI EAFE -0.81% -0.51% 8.89% 20.75%
MSCI Emerging Markets -4.10% -5.76% 16.71% 32.95%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 3.08% 3.73% 22.23% 25.53%
Bloomberg Commodity 3.65% 6.84% 22.18% 30.66%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.13% -0.45% 0.16% 4.31%

WSJ 7/14/2026, NFIB 7/14/2026, WSJ 7/16/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the ability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.