This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Inflation Ticks Up Marginally in June, Retail Sales Rebound in June, Beige Book Indicates Modest Economic Growth
  • The CPI rose 2.7% on a year-over-year basis in June
  • U.S. retail sales increased 0.6% in June

Top Three Market Headlines

Inflation Ticks Up Marginally in June: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% in June from the prior month, up from a 0.1% pace in May. On a year-over-year basis, prices rose 2.7% in June versus a 2.4% rate in May. Contributing to the higher readings in June were energy and food prices, which increased 0.9% and 0.3% in the month, respectively. Stripping out these items, the "core" CPI showed a slower pace of acceleration in June, rising 0.2% monthly and 2.9% on a year over year basis, each just a touch higher than respective rates of 0.1% and 2.8% in May.

Retail Sales Rebound in June: The U.S. Census Bureau announced last week that sales at U.S. retail and food service establishments rose 0.6% in June from May, following two consecutive months of declines. Of the thirteen primary business categories, ten posted an increase in June sales, up from just five in May. A rebound in auto sales, the largest individual category in the index, benefited the headline reading, with sales for motor vehicles up 1.2% in June. Excluding autos, however, sales were still up 0.5% month-over-month, exceeding market expectations of a 0.3% increase, thanks to solid gains across each of the next four largest categories: internet sales (+0.4%), restaurants (+0.6%), and food & beverage stores (+0.5%).

Beige Book Indicates Modest Economic Growth: The Federal Reserve last week published the latest edition of its "Beige Book," a compilation of anecdotal information about the economy across the 12 Federal Reserve districts in the U.S. In general, according to the report, economic activity increased slightly across the country from late May through early July. Employment conditions increased but only slightly, with businesses reporting cautiousness around hiring due to economic and policy uncertainty. Companies in all districts reported some degree of input cost pressures related to tariffs, particularly for raw materials, with many passing on at least a portion of price hikes to consumers.

As of July 18, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.60% 1.15% 11.32% 15.21%
S&P 500 0.61% 1.54% 7.83% 15.10%
Russell 2000 0.24% 3.03% 1.19% 3.30%
MSCI EAFE -0.29% -0.52% 18.83% 13.75%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.68% 2.39% 18.02% 15.50%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 0.05% 0.68% 0.42% 3.54%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.33% 3.25% 8.96% 11.10%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.04% -0.77% 3.22% 3.75%

Bloomberg 7/16/2025 and 7/17/2025, Reuters 7/16/2025, US Census Bureau 7/17/2025, US Bureau of Labor Statistics 7/15/2025, Federal Reserve 7/16/2025. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.