This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Key Index Signals Easing Inflation in April, U.S. Home Prices Cool in March, Fed Minutes Reflect Concerns About Economic Uncertainty
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index rose 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in April
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite increased 4.1% in February versus the prior year
  • The Federal Reserve left the federal funds target rate range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in early May

Top Three Market Headlines

Key Index Signals Easing Inflation in April: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, reported to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, rose 0.1% in April from the prior month and 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. The latter rate was a sharp slowdown from a 2.6% pace as recently as February. Prices for goods in April were 0.4% lower than one year prior while services prices rose 3.3%. On a "core" basis (excluding food and energy), prices also rose 0.1% on the month, with the annual pace falling to 2.5%, the lowest level since March 2021.

U.S. Home Prices Cool in March: After rising for more than two years, prices of homes across key U.S. metropolitan areas fell marginally on a monthly basis in March. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite index decreased 0.1% in March, its first decline since January 2023. On a year-over-year basis, prices were 4.1% higher, though this was the slowest pace since September 2023. Prices rose versus the prior year in 19 out of 20 cities, though seven cities saw increases of less than 2%, with Tampa experiencing a 2.2% decline. New York remained the hottest market, reporting an annual gain 8.0%.

Fed Minutes Reflect Concerns About Economic Uncertainty: Minutes released last week from the latest Federal Reserve meeting in early May highlighted the effect of heightened economic uncertainty in Fed governors' decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range between 4.25% and 4.50%. While acknowledging solid economic growth and labor market conditions, the rate-setting committee noted that risks to unemployment and inflation have risen, driven in large part by uncertainty around tariffs. Members agreed that a cautious approach to monetary policy would be appropriate "until the net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies become clearer."

As of May 30, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.34% 6.73% 5.32% 14.30%
S&P 500 1.90% 5.57% 1.06% 14.44%
Russell 2000 1.32% 2.91% -6.85% 1.87%
MSCI EAFE 0.89% 9.37% 16.87% 14.11%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.12% 5.64% 8.73% 12.09%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 2.97% -0.62% 0.29% 14.38%
Bloomberg Commodity -2.56% -5.36% 3.05% 0.67%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.88% -0.33% 2.45% 5.84%

The Federal Reserve 5/28/25, Bloomberg 5/28/25, S&P Global 5/27/2025, Bureau of Economic Analysis 5/30/2025. FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single- member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.