This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Inflation Remains Steady in May, Jobless Claims on the Rise, Fresh Low for the U.S. Dollar
  • The Consumer Price Index rose at a 2.4% annual rate in May
  • Continuous jobless claims rose to 1.95 million for the week ended 5/30/2025
  • The ICE U.S. Dollar Index has declined 9.5% year-to-date

Top Three Market Headlines

Inflation Remains Steady in May: Despite on-going concerns over tariffs potentially driving up consumer prices, inflation readings remained steady through May. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% on the month, or 2.4% on a year-over-year basis, up just a touch from a 2.3% pace in April. Gasoline prices saw a 2.6% drop during May, helping offset higher costs in housing and food. The "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy items, also rose 0.1% on the month, or 2.8% on a year-over-year basis, the latter being unchanged from April.

Jobless Claims on the Rise: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that initial jobless claims were unchanged at 248,000 for the week ending June 7th. This pushed the four-week average of initial claims to 240,250, up from a recent cycle low of 212,500 in early January and the highest level since August 2023. Meanwhile, the number of people already collecting unemployment benefits, or continuous claims, rose to 1.95 million for the week ended 5/30/2025, the highest level of since November 2021.

Fresh Low for the U.S. Dollar: The value of the U.S. dollar touched a new multi-year low last week, as the ICE U.S. Dollar Index closed the week at its lowest level since March of 2022. After declining nearly 9% from the start of the year through mid-April, the index, which measures the value of the U.S. dollar versus a basket of other major currencies, had stabilized through mid-May as volatility in financial markets receded. The dollar's slide resumed at that point, however, with the index dropping in three of the subsequent four weeks, including a 1% drop last week, pulling its year-to-decline down to almost 10%.

As of June 13, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.22% 8.04% 6.61% 12.94%
S&P 500 -0.36% 6.81% 2.25% 11.50%
Russell 2000 -1.45% 4.69% -5.23% 4.45%
MSCI EAFE -0.17% 9.97% 17.52% 14.91%
MSCI Emerging Markets 0.75% 8.85% 12.04% 13.38%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.45% -0.60% 0.31% 10.86%
Bloomberg Commodity 2.01% -0.16% 8.71% 7.30%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.67% -0.09% 2.69% 4.00%

US Bureau of Labor Statistics 6/11/2025, US Dep't of Labor 6/12/2025, WSJ.com 6/12/2025, FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.