This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Fed Keeps Rates Steady at New Chair’s Inaugural Meeting, Retail Sales Maintain Momentum in May, Oil Prices Fall After Iran Deal.
  • The Federal Reserve maintained its target policy rate at a range of 3.50% - 3.75%
  • Retail sales rose 0.9% in May
  • Brent crude oil prices fell 8% on the week

Top Three Market Headlines

Fed Keeps Rates Steady at New Chair's Inaugural Meeting: The Federal Reserve last week held its key policy interest rate target unchanged at the first meeting overseen by new chair Kevin Warsh. The bank's policy-making body, the Federal Open Market Committee, voted unanimously to keep the federal funds overnight borrowing rate anchored in a range of 3.5%-3.75%, as expected by markets. At the same time, the Fed's accompanying public statement removed prior language signaling a bias towards future rate cuts, and Fed governors' updated policy expectations trended upward, with the median projection in the so called "dot plot" reflecting a rate increase by year-end.

Retail Sales Maintain Momentum in May: The U.S. Census Bureau reported last week that sales at U.S. retail and food service establishments rose 0.9% in May, exceeding economists' forecast of 0.5%. The largest contributor to the increase was gas stations, where sales rose 3.4% due to higher gas prices. Growth was also solid across other business segments, however, including miscellaneous retailers, internet retailers, and furniture stores. This broad strength was reflected in the fact that total sales growth excluding gasoline and autos rose 0.5%, the fourth straight monthly increase of 0.5% or above for this measure.

Oil Prices Fall After Iran Deal: Oil prices fell last week to their lowest level since the start of military operations against Iran after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to halt the conflict. The agreement will result in the reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Futures prices for Brent crude oil fell nearly 8% on the week, hitting a low of $76.54 per barrel midweek, off 36% from a high of almost $120 on March 9th. With the MOU in place, an estimated 100 million barrels of oil await transit through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting a significant supply surge is imminent.

As of June 19, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.25% 15.45% 11.76% 28.78%
S&P 500 0.96% 15.19% 10.20% 26.93%
Russell 2000 1.24% 19.64% 20.70% 42.80%
MSCI EAFE 0.76% 11.10% 9.73% 24.49%
MSCI Emerging Markets 4.15% 28.53% 28.32% 54.64%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -2.70% 9.51% 14.76% 17.51%
Bloomberg Commodity -1.87% -5.41% 17.69% 22.85%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.14% 0.54% 0.49% 4.80%

WSJ 6/17/2026 & 6/18/2026, U.S. Census Bureau 6/17/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the ability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.