This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Fed Sits Tight, Softness in Housing Market Indicators, Oil Prices Rebound Sharply from May Lows
  • The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%
  • The pace of housing starts in the U.S. fell nearly 10% in May
  • West Texas Intermediate oil futures prices have surged 30% since early May

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Top Three Market Headlines

Fed Sits Tight: The U.S. Federal Reserve last week voted once again to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.50%. After cutting the policy benchmark by one percentage point in the final months of 2024, the central bank's rate-setting committee has left the rate unchanged four times in 2025. Concurrently, committee members maintained their most recent projection for two quarter-point rate cuts later in 2025. In explaining the decision to stand pat, the Fed stated that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace, labor market conditions remain solid, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.

Softness in Housing Market Indicators: Two data points last week reflected weakening conditions in the U.S. housing market. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the rate of housing starts in May was 1.26 million on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, down nearly 10% from April and the lowest level since May 2020. While single-family home starts rose marginally in May, multi-family starts plunged by 30%. Separately, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that its latest Housing Market Index, a monthly survey of homebuilders' sales expectations, registered 32.0, the third-lowest reading since 2012.

Oil Prices Rebound Sharply from May Lows: After reaching multi-year lows in the beginning of May, global oil prices have surged in recent weeks as Israel initiated military air strikes against Iran. Futures contract prices for the international oil price benchmark, Brent Crude, surged more than 25% from their year-to-date low of $60.23 per barrel on May 5th through the end of last week, when they settled at $77.01. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil price benchmark, has followed suit, rising nearly 30% over the same period and settling last Friday at $73.84 per barrel, up from $57.13 on May 5th.

As of June 20, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.42% 7.58% 6.16% 11.78%
S&P 500 -0.12% 6.68% 2.12% 10.51%
Russell 2000 0.44% 5.15% -4.82% 5.99%
MSCI EAFE -1.46% 8.37% 15.81% 13.53%
MSCI Emerging Markets -0.02% 8.84% 12.02% 11.21%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.06% -0.66% 0.25% 10.87%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.45% 1.29% 10.28% 8.77%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.26% 0.16% 2.95% 4.32%

U.S. Census Bureau, 6/18/20025, Nat'l Assoc. of Homebuilders 6/17/2025, Wall Street Journal 6/13/2025, LSEG 6/19/2025 Federal Reserve 6/18/2025, FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.