This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Shifting Leaderboard for U.S. Equities, Mortgage Rates Hit 3.5-Year Low, Another Quarter of Strong Corporate Earnings Growth
  • The equal-weighted S&P 500 is up 7.1% YTD
  • The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 5.98% last week
  • The Q4 2025 earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies stands at 14.2%

Top Three Market Headlines

Shifting Leaderboard for U.S. Equities: 2026 has witnessed a notable rotation in U.S. equity market leadership thus far. Small-cap value stocks lead the pack through two months (+8.9%, Russell 2000 Value index), far outdistancing the market leader in recent years, large-cap growth stocks (-4.8%, Russell 1000 Growth index). Across sectors, Information Technology stocks within the S&P 500 are down 5.5% year-to-date, while those in the Energy and Materials sectors have rallied 25.0% and 17.8%, respectively, highlighting a shift toward more cyclical and value-oriented stocks. Further, the equal-weighted S&P 500 index has advanced 7.1% year-to-date, versus a modest 0.7% gain for the bellwether S&P 500 index, which is weighted by market capitalization.

Mortgage Rates Hit 3.5-Year Low: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell below the key 6% threshold last week for the first time since September of 2022, according to Freddie Mac. At 5.98%, the average rate was measurably lower than 6.76% a year ago, reflecting declines over this period in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, which helps set mortgage pricing. While housing affordability remains challenging, the downward trend in mortgage rates points towards improving borrowing conditions and has sparked optimism about improved housing activity heading into the important spring homebuying season.

Another Quarter of Strong Corporate Earnings Growth: Corporate earnings reports issued in recent weeks indicate that earnings growth remained strong across corporate America in Q4 2025. With 96% of S&P 500 companies reporting results through February, their combined year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q4 stood at 14.2%, according to FactSet. If this rate sustains, it will mark the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for index companies. Further, 73% of companies have reported a positive earnings surprise relative to Wall Street brokerage analysts' expectations.

As of February 27, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.38% 4.29% 4.29% 25.02%
S&P 500 -0.42% 0.68% 0.68% 18.86%
Russell 2000 -1.15% 6.20% 6.20% 24.71%
MSCI EAFE 1.24% 10.09% 10.09% 33.57%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.82% 14.83% 14.83% 46.39%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 1.04% 11.20% 11.20% 10.15%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.74% 11.58% 11.58% 21.51%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.54% 1.75% 1.75% 6.68%

Freddie Mac 2/26/2026, FactSet 2/27/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.