This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Fed Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged, Global Central Banks Also Hold Rates Steady, Industrial Production Growth Continues
  • The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds target range at 3.50% - 3.75%
  • The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate stands at 0.75%
  • U.S. industrial production grew 0.2% in February

Please join us for our Q1 2026 Gallagher Financial Markets Update webinar Thursday, April 9th at 10:00 a.m. CT

Register Today!

Top Three Market Headlines

Fed Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged: The Federal Reserve's interest-rate setting committee voted last week to hold the federal funds rate target unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% amid economic uncertainty fueled by developments in the Middle East. This was the second consecutive meeting at which officials held the target steady after lowering it by ¾ percentage point in the back half of 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation remains above the central bank's 2% goal and that inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks amid the Iran conflict. Nonetheless, committee members' updated guidance for future rates reaffirmed one additional quarter-point cut in 2026.

Global Central Banks Also Hold Rates Steady: The Bank of England, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all met last week and voted to keep their respective policy interest rates at their current levels. The Bank of Japan kicked off the string of decisions on Wednesday, preserving its policy rate at 0.75%, as expected. The following day both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England also held their respective rates unchanged. While standing pat for now, all three monetary authorities warned they could hike rates this year amid possible inflation increases resulting from the war in Iran.

Industrial Production Growth Continues: The Federal Reserve reported last week that U.S. industrial production increased 0.2% in February from the prior month. This was the fourth straight month that production increased, the longest stretch of consecutive growth in nearly three years. Specifically, manufacturing production grew 0.2% in February, its third increase in the four months, while mining grew 0.8% after a 0.9% rise in the prior month. Related, the level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector held steady at 76.3% after having jumped to that level from 75.8% late last year.

As of March 20, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -1.77% -3.05% -3.05% 17.99%
S&P 500 -1.87% -4.68% -4.68% 16.34%
Russell 2000 -1.65% -1.52% -1.52% 19.45%
MSCI EAFE -2.06% -1.46% -1.46% 16.57%
MSCI Emerging Markets -0.35% 4.48% 4.48% 31.02%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -3.73% 3.43% 3.43% 5.86%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.55% 23.23% 23.23% 31.97%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.51% -0.68% -0.68% 3.77%

WSJ 3/18/26, Federal Reserve 3/16/26, 3/18/26. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.