This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Bond Yields Rise Amid Inflationary Pressures, Import Price Index Jumps, Consumer Sentiment Dips in March
  • The U.S. 10-year bond yield closed at an eight-month high of 4.44%
  • U.S. import prices rose 1.3% in February
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 53.3 in March

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Top Three Market Headlines

Bond Yields Rise Amid Inflationary Pressures: Global bond market yields continued rising last week amid the ongoing conflict in Iran that has pushed energy prices higher. The bellwether 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield closed the week at 4.44%, an eight-month high, while the yield on the 2-year Treasury briefly hit 4.0% on Friday for the first time since last June. Overseas, Germany's 10-year Bund yield advanced to 3.10%, the highest level since 2011. Renewed inflationary pressures have shifted expectations for central banks' monetary policies, with markets now anticipating three rate hikes from both the ECB and the Bank of England and no Federal Reserve rate cuts in the U.S. in 2026.

Import Price Index Jumps: U.S. import prices surged in February, rising 1.3% month over month, the largest monthly increase since March 2022. The significant jump was keyed by rising energy costs, as imported fuel prices surged 3.8%. In addition, prices rose for capital goods — particularly computers — industrial supplies, and consumer goods excluding automobiles. Economists noted that increases in non-fuel import prices could signal lasting effects on inflation, which combined with recent energy price increases could encourage the Fed to keep interest rates steady for longer.

Consumer Sentiment Dips in March: The Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan fell in March to a reading of 53.3, down from 56.6 in February. This was the first decline following three straight monthly increases. Lower sentiment was reported in March across middle- and higher-income consumers due to both rising gas prices and heightened volatility in financial markets. Survey respondents were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and inflation, though longer-term expectations for both were little changed, suggesting that many consumers do not expect recent negative developments to persist for long.

As of March 27, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -1.49% -4.50% -4.50% 16.22%
S&P 500 -2.10% -6.68% -6.68% 13.28%
Russell 2000 0.47% -1.05% -1.05% 20.17%
MSCI EAFE 0.05% -1.40% -1.40% 17.94%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.74% 2.66% 2.66% 29.82%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.49% 2.92% 2.92% 5.93%
Bloomberg Commodity 0.12% 23.37% 23.37% 32.32%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.12% -0.79% -0.79% 4.39%

Morningstar 3/27/2026, Bloomberg 3/25/2026, Univ. of Michigan 3/27/2026, Barron's 3/30/2026, US Bureau of Labor Statistics 3/25/2026. Data from Morningstar Direct and FactSet. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.