This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: U.S. GDP Contracts Modestly in Q1, April Job Gains Exceed Estimates, U.S. Home Prices Keep Rising
  • U.S. GDP declined 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025
  • The U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April
  • The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite increased 4.5% annually in February

Top Three Market Headlines

U.S. GDP Contracts Modestly in Q1: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis last week released its first estimate of Q1 2025 gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of the total goods and services produced within the economy. For the quarter, real GDP (seasonally-adjusted annual rate, adjusted for inflation) declined 0.3%, which was attributable primarily to a surge in imports (which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP) as companies rushed to secure inventory ahead of tariffs. Lower government spending also contributed to the negative print. These were offset by increases in investment, consumer spending, and exports.

April Job Gains Exceed Estimates: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, which exceeded economists' forecast of 138,000 additions. At the same time, previously estimated gains for February and March were revised down by 58,000. Growth in April was led by the healthcare industry, which added 51,000 jobs. Like previous months, the federal government's workforce declined, with 9,000 job losses in April. The unemployment rate remained unchanged from last month at 4.2%.

U.S. Home Prices Keep Rising: Prices of homes increased again in February across most of the U.S., according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices released last week. The 20-City Composite, representing the 20 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, rose 0.4% from January and was up 4.5% from the prior year. While mortgage rates have remained elevated compared to recent years, home prices have been supported by limited housing supply. Across various U.S. markets, 19 of 20 cities posted price increases in February compared to the prior year, led by New York (+7.7%), Chicago (+7.0%), and Cleveland (+7.0%).

As of May 02, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 3.01% 2.85% 1.48% 13.36%
S&P 500 2.94% 1.42% -2.91% 13.82%
Russell 2000 3.24% 0.51% -9.02% 1.61%
MSCI EAFE 3.17% 6.09% 13.37% 14.00%
MSCI Emerging Markets 3.37% 3.20% 6.22% 10.29%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 2.86% -1.11% -0.20% 15.35%
Bloomberg Commodity -1.06% -4.29% 4.21% 5.48%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.30% -0.40% 2.37% 6.36%

US Dept. of Labor 5/2/2025.The Bureau of Economic Analysis 4/30/2025, S&P Global 4/29/2025, Bloomberg 4/30/2025. FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single- member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.