This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Fed Again Holds Policy Rate Steady, U.S. GDP Rebounds in Q1, U.S. Home Price Growth Slows in February:
  • The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%
  • U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026
  • The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index rose just 0.9% in February versus last year

PLUS- Separate reality from the headlines. In this timely webinar, Gallagher's investment leaders unpack the forces influencing private credit — from risk and liquidity concerns to where disciplined investors may find opportunity.

Top Three Market Headlines

Fed Again Holds Policy Rate Steady: The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee last week once again held its benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate, steady at a target range of 3.50%-3.75%. Fed officials have now voted three times in 2026 to keep the target at this level, which has prevailed since December 2025. In a post-meeting press conference, outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy has been expanding at a solid pace but also noted that the Iran conflict is contributing to uncertainty about the economic outlook. Among other key issues the Fed monitors, Mr. Powell said that inflation remains elevated but job gains have remained low.

U.S. GDP Rebounds in Q1: The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis last week issued its advance estimate of U.S. real (i.e., inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2026. According to the report, GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.0%, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 of 2025. The largest contributor to Q1's accelerated pace was private investment, keyed by spending on equipment — primarily computers and peripheral products — related to on-going AI-related business investments. In addition, government spending bounced back in Q1 after the Q4 2025 government shutdown, and consumer spending increased, led by health care services.

U.S. Home Price Growth Slows in February: According to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, which tracks the purchase prices of single-family homes in 20 key U.S. metro areas, prices slipped marginally in February by 0.05% (seasonally adjusted) versus the prior month, the first monthly decline in seven months. Versus the prior year, prices rose just 0.9%, the smallest annual gain since July of 2023. More than half of the cities experienced year-over-year price declines in February, indicating the housing slowdown has now broadened beyond the Sun Belt regions that first saw slowing conditions.

As of May 1, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.75% 10.47% 6.93% 31.09%
S&P 500 0.92% 10.82% 6.02% 30.62%
Russell 2000 0.94% 12.73% 13.73% 44.22%
MSCI EAFE 0.98% 7.81% 6.48% 26.00%
MSCI Emerging Markets -0.52% 14.80% 14.61% 46.90%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 1.20% 8.87% 14.10% 19.24%
Bloomberg Commodity 3.09% 4.00% 29.40% 44.65%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.39% 0.22% 0.18% 4.52%

Federal Reserve 4/29/2026, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) 4/30/2026, WSJ 4/29/2026, Reuters 4/30/2026,S&P 4/28/26. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.