This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Private Sector Hiring Rebounds in October, Business Activity Surveys Mixed in October, Consumer Debt Delinquencies Stabilize in the Third Quarter
  • ADP reported an increase of 42,000 private sector jobs in October
  • The ISM Services Index for October registered 52.4%
  • 4.5% of U.S. consumer debt was in delinquency as of Q3 2025

Top Three Market Headlines

Private Sector Hiring Rebounds in October: ADP's latest monthly National Employment Report indicated that private sector employers added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first monthly gain since July. By category, the strongest job growth occurred in Trade, Transportation, & Utilities, followed by Education & Health Services. Wage growth continued at a steady pace, with annual pay rising 4.5% for employees who stayed in their jobs and 6.7% for those who changed positions. Large companies added 73,000 jobs, whereas small and medium-sized businesses saw decreases of 10,000 and 21,000 jobs, respectively.

Business Activity Surveys Mixed in October: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported last week that its ISM Manufacturing Index, based on surveys of business executives, registered 48.7% in October, down slightly from 49.1% in September. The decline was caused by a drop in production and inventories. This was the eighth straight month the index fell below the 50% threshold that distinguishes expansion of business activity from contraction. In contrast to the manufacturing sector, trends remained more favorable in the services sector, as ISM's Services Index came in at 52.4%. This was an increase from 50.0% in September and the fifth consecutive month of expanding activity.

Consumer Debt Delinquencies Stabilize in the Third Quarter: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit last week, which indicated that household debt is "growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing." Specifically, household debt rose at a 1% pace in the third quarter to $18.59 trillion, while 4.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency. The report characterized this latter figure as "elevated," but also noted that it was up only 0.1 percentage points from the prior quarter. Transitions into early delinquency rose across credit card debt and student loans, but decreased across all other debt types.

As of November 7, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -1.46% 0.74% 19.32% 16.59%
S&P 500 -1.61% 0.69% 15.63% 14.13%
Russell 2000 -1.86% -0.09% 10.29% 3.50%
MSCI EAFE -0.76% 0.40% 25.64% 20.94%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.39% 2.73% 31.01% 23.78%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 1.59% -0.05% 4.45% 0.05%
Bloomberg Commodity 0.08% 2.97% 12.63% 12.74%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.03% 0.65% 6.82% 6.04%

ADP 11/5/2025, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 11/5/2025, ISM 11/3/2025 & 11/5/2025. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.