This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Companies Report Strong Q3 Earnings, Small Business Confidence Wanes in October, Traders Pare December Rate Cut Bets
  • The Q3 2025 earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies stands at 13.1%
  • The Small Business Confidence Index fell to 98.2% in October
  • Financial markets assign a 39% probability to a fed funds rate cut at the Fed's December meeting

Top Three Market Headlines

Companies Report Strong Q3 Earnings: Earnings reports issued in recent weeks indicate that earnings growth accelerated across corporate America in Q3 2025. With 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting results through mid-November, the year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for Q3 for such companies (including both actual results and estimates for those yet to report) stood at 13.1%, according to FactSet. If this rate stands, it will mark the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for index companies. Further, 82% of companies have reported a positive earnings surprise relative to brokerage firms' expectations, while 76% have reported a positive revenue surprise.

Small Business Confidence Wanes in October: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported last week that its Small Business Optimism Index registered 98.2 in October, down slightly from 98.8 in September but remaining just above the 52-year average of 98.0. The Index's latest decline was mainly driven by business owners' concerns about labor availability and quality, with 32% of owners reporting an inability to fill job openings and 27% citing labor quality as their single most important problem. Overall, the net percentage of owners expecting better business conditions fell three percentage points to a net 20%, the lowest level since April.

Traders Pare December Rate Cut Bets: Traders on Wall Street have become less optimistic in recent weeks about the possibility of another rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting on December 10th. At the end of last week, the odds of a December cut — based on the pricing of fed funds rate futures contracts — stood at 39%, down from 64% in the prior week and nearly 90% one month ago. The sharp decline is partially due to traders betting Fed officials may remain on hold given the limited availability of economic data in the wake of the recent U.S. government shutdown, combined with the fact that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target rate.

As of November 14, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.45% 1.19% 19.85% 18.64%
S&P 500 0.12% 0.81% 15.77% 14.67%
Russell 2000 -1.79% -1.88% 8.32% 3.60%
MSCI EAFE 1.66% 2.07% 27.73% 26.52%
MSCI Emerging Markets 0.31% 3.04% 31.41% 30.57%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -1.23% -1.28% 3.17% -0.47%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.74% 4.77% 14.59% 18.60%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.24% 0.41% 6.57% 6.45%

FactSet 11/14/2025, Nat'l Federation of Independent Business 11/11/2025. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.