This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Treasury Yields Ease Following Recent Rise, Mortgage Applications Decline Further and Consumer Sentiment Holds Steady in October
  • The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 5%
  • Mortgage applications fell by 5.3% on a weekly basis
  • Consumer sentiment declined slightly to 48.0 in October

Top Three Market Headlines

Treasury Yields Ease Following Recent Rise: U.S. Treasury yields moved lower this week, reversing some of the increase seen earlier in October. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell below 5% for the first time since September 23rd, reaching 4.94% as renewed demand for government bonds helped push yields lower. The move came as investors navigated weakness in technology stocks, geopolitical uncertainty, and elevated energy prices. The decline also marked a shift from earlier this month, when both the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields reached their highest levels in more than two decades amid concerns surrounding persistent inflation and higher energy prices.

Mortgage Applications Decline Further: Mortgage Applications in the U.S. fell 5.3% over the week ending October 16th. This marked the seventh consecutive weekly decline in applications and marked the lowest level since January of 2025. This continued drop reflects applicant sentiment over higher borrowing costs with the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage remaining close to a three year high. With that being said, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased slightly last week to 7.41% from 7.50%.

Consumer Sentiment Holds Steady in October: Consumer sentiment remained relatively steady in October, with the University of Michigan's index coming in at 48.0 compared with 48.1 in September. This marked the second lowest reading on record, behind the 44.8 reading in May. Consumers remained focused on purchasing power, while higher interest rates and affordability concerns weighed on buying conditions for durable goods. Expectations for business conditions over the next year improved during the month, while annual inflation expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in September.

As of October 23, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.89% -1.35% 11.51% 13.94%
S&P 500 -0.46% -0.31% 12.40% 14.46%
Russell 2000 2.01% -0.71% 12.90% 13.19%
MSCI EAFE -1.52% -1.59% 8.57% 12.32%
MSCI Emerging Markets -2.62% -7.38% 14.28% 16.58%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 1.14% 2.08% 12.91% 10.08%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.43% 1.60% 34.99% 38.31%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.54% 1.87% -1.10% -1.11%

CNBC 10/22/2026, Trading Economics Via MBA 10/16/2026, MSN 10/23/2026. Index returns from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA&"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the ability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.