This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Core Inflation Eases in September, Existing Home Sales Grow in September, Consumer Sentiment Remains Restrained
  • The core Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% year-over-year in October
  • Existing home sales rose 1.5% in September
  • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 53.6 in October

Top Three Market Headlines

Core Inflation Eases in September: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday finally released the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which had been delayed since mid-October due to the U.S. government shutdown. The headline CPI, which measures all products and services, rose at a 0.3% rate for the month, down modestly from a 0.4% pace in August. Versus last year, the index rose 3.0%, a slight increase from 2.9% in August but below economists' forecast of 3.1%. Notably, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, eased on both a monthly and annual basis, rising 0.2% and 3.0%, respectively, both one-tenths of a percentage point lower than last month.

Existing Home Sales Grow in September: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported last week that existing home sales in the U.S. rose in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million units. This was up 1.5% from the previous month and the highest monthly tally since February. NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun attributed the increased activity to falling mortgage rates and improving housing affordability, while noting that housing inventory is close to a five-year high. Across all housing types, the median existing sales price increased in September for the 27th straight month, rising 2.1% from last year.

Consumer Sentiment Remains Restrained: The Index of Consumer Sentiment, published by the University of Michigan, declined in October by 1.5 points to 53.6. This marked the third straight monthly drop and was just slightly above the recent cycle low of 52.2 in May after President Trump first unveiled steep new tariffs. Inflation remained a key concern among survey respondents, whose long-term inflation expectations moved higher from 3.7% in the prior month to 3.9%. While the on-going government shutdown has garnered many headlines, consumers were relatively unfazed, with only 2% referencing the shutdown as a concern as it relates to the economy.

As of October 24, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.78% 1.73% 20.49% 20.10%
S&P 500 1.93% 1.61% 16.68% 18.43%
Russell 2000 2.51% 3.20% 13.92% 14.83%
MSCI EAFE 1.25% 1.64% 27.19% 22.19%
MSCI Emerging Markets 2.05% 3.26% 31.69% 24.99%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 1.09% 1.26% 5.82% -0.26%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.74% 2.89% 12.54% 12.27%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.17% 1.20% 7.41% 6.39%

National Association of Realtors 10/23/2025, US Bureau of Labor Statistics 10/24/2025, Univ. of Michigan 10/24/25. FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.