This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Fed’s Favored Inflation Index Ticks Higher, U.S. Home Prices Soften,
  • The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%
  • Retail sales rose 0.6% in August versus the prior month
  • Arabica coffee futures jumped to nearly $4.20 per pound last week

Top Three Market Headlines

Federal Reserve Enacts Rate Cut: The Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee voted last week to cut the federal funds target rate by a quarter percentage point to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. The move followed five consecutive meetings since December 2024 where the committee voted to hold the rate steady. In a statement following the decision, Fed officials noted that while inflation remains somewhat elevated, the downside risks to employment have risen, supporting the decision for more dovish monetary policy. Based on the Fed's "dot plot," a representation of each voting member's forecast of the future path of interest rates, expectations are for two more quarter-point cuts by the end of the year.

Internet Shopping Drives Retail Sales Growth in August: The U.S. Census Bureau reported last Tuesday that sales at U.S. retail and food service establishments rose 0.6% in August from the prior month, while the rate of growth in July was revised upward to 0.6%. Driving the increased sales in August was strength across internet retailers, which saw monthly growth of 2.0%, or 10.1% over the prior year. The August report extended a string of relatively strong recent sales results for retailers: Including June, when monthly sales rose 1.0%, total retail sales over the last three months grew 4.5% from the prior year.

Coffee Prices Get a Jolt: The most active futures contract for coffee jumped to nearly $4.20 per pound last week, just below the all-time high of $4.29 per pound hit earlier this year in February. Prices have risen almost 50% since the beginning of August amidst a drop in arabica stockpiles and concerns of drought conditions in Brazil. The U.S. supply of arabica coffee has tightened due to a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee that has significantly restricted imports from the country. The recent rally has also been augmented by futures market speculators increasing buying activity in low volume market conditions.

As of September 19, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 1.01% 7.23% 18.00% 18.63%
S&P 500 1.25% 7.71% 14.39% 18.17%
Russell 2000 2.19% 12.89% 10.88% 10.19%
MSCI EAFE -0.18% 4.06% 24.30% 15.76%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.19% 10.17% 26.99% 24.40%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -1.39% 3.26% 3.00% -3.28%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.71% 1.89% 7.52% 9.91%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.19% 2.09% 6.20% 2.62%

Federal Reserve Board 9/17/25, Bloomberg 9/16/25, US Census Bureau 9/16/2025, FactSet. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.