This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Mortgage Rates Top 7%, AI Infrastructure Spending Projected to Set U.S. Record, U.S. and China Extend Trade Truce
  • The average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7%
  • AI infrastructure spending is projected to total $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032
  • The U.S and China extended their trade truce by two months

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Top Three Market Headlines

Mortgage Rates Top 7%: The average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage topped 7% last week for the first time since January of 2025, according to Freddie Mac. The increase in rates follows a recent bond market selloff that pushed the 10-year Treasury yield above 5% for the first time in nearly two decades, and comes on the heels of the Fed's recent rate hike. Higher borrowing costs are pressuring the housing market: existing-home sales fell 2% in August to their lowest level since June 2025, while the NAHB Housing Market Index, derived from a monthly survey of homebuilders, registered a 12-month low in September.

AI Infrastructure Spending Projected to Set U.S. Record: The total investment in U.S. data centers and related AI infrastructure is projected to hit $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, according to the Brookings Institution. This would represent 3.6% of U.S. gross domestic product annually, on average, which would exceed all other major infrastructure efforts in U.S. history, including railroads in the late 1800's, highways in the 1950's, and the internet buildout around the year 2000. Capital spending at five of the largest "hyperscalers," or companies building data centers, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Oracle, will top $4 trillion in the four years through 2029, according to FactSet.

U.S. and China Extend Trade Truce: The United States and China announced last week that they have extended their trade truce by two months. The temporary agreement, originally agreed to last October, was set to expire in November but will now be pushed out through January of 2027. The extension, announced ahead of last week's summit between the two countries at the White House, will keep tariffs lower for the time being and allow both sides more time to work out a more comprehensive trade deal. U.S. officials are expected to push China to fulfill more of their current commitments, including those related to purchasing agricultural goods and delivering rare earth minerals.

As of September 25, 2026 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 0.95% 2.75% 14.31% 19.50%
S&P 500 1.23% 3.52% 14.09% 18.62%
Russell 2000 -0.79% -5.92% 15.31% 19.14%
MSCI EAFE 0.20% 1.37% 10.95% 18.32%
MSCI Emerging Markets 1.29% 1.11% 25.22% 31.39%
FTSE NAREIT Equity -0.74% -5.01% 11.93% 12.08%
Bloomberg Commodity -0.69% 18.20% 35.17% 43.38%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.82% -2.88% -2.28% -1.00%

WSJ 9/23/2026, 9/24/2026, Bloomberg 9/24/2026, CNBC 9/23/2026, FactSet. Index returns from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the ability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.