This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Core Inflation Holds Steady in August, Spring GDP Growth Stronger Than Expected, U.S. Dollar’s Decline Halted
  • The core PCE Price index held at an annual rate of 2.9% in August
  • U.S. Q2 GDP growth was revised upward to a 3.8% annual rate
  • The ICE U.S Dollar index was up 0.5% last week

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Top Three Market Headlines

Core Inflation Holds Steady in August: The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, showed a monthly inflation rate of 0.3% in August. This put the annual rate for the index at 2.7%, a slight increase from July's 2.6% reading. The annual rate has risen at a slow but steady pace upward from a level of 2.3% in April. The core PCE, a measure that excludes the more volatile food and energy categories, rose 0.2% on the month in August while holding steady at a 2.9% pace year-over-year. The core rate has also inched up in recent months from 2.6% in April, but remains below the 3.0% rate seen in February of this year.

Spring GDP Growth Stronger Than Expected: The U.S. economy grew faster in Q2 of this year than previously estimated, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week. The agency revised its measure of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Q2 upward from last month's estimate of 3.3% to a final reading of 3.8% (seasonally-adjusted annualized rate). This was the strongest pace in nearly two years, and compared to a decline of 0.5% in Q1. The Q2 turnaround was keyed by a reduction in imports, which are a subtraction from growth in the GDP calculation, and higher consumer spending.

U.S. Dollar's Decline Halted: The U.S. dollar found a modest measure of support last week, which temporarily arrested the pressure the greenback has faced since the start of the year. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the value of the dollar versus a basket of other major currencies, gained 0.5%, its largest weekly rise since late July. The bounce came slightly after the dollar hit a year-to-date low on September 16th. Despite the modest rebound in recent days, however, the dollar remained down nearly 10% in value for the year-to-date period through the end of the week.

As of September 26, 2025 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -0.48% 6.72% 17.44% 16.49%
S&P 500 -0.30% 7.39% 14.05% 17.16%
Russell 2000 -0.58% 12.24% 10.23% 11.67%
MSCI EAFE -0.41% 3.63% 23.79% 13.41%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.12% 8.94% 25.57% 16.30%
FTSE NAREIT Equity 0.76% 4.05% 3.78% -1.08%
Bloomberg Commodity 2.15% 4.07% 9.83% 9.85%
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.28% 1.81% 5.90% 2.69%

WSJ 9/25/2025, Bureau of Economic Analysis 9/26/2025, Thomson Reuters 9/25/25 Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory services are offered by Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA"), an SEC registered investment advisor that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary and independent fiduciary services. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any specific level of skill or training and does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice. GFA does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your GFA consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.