This Weekly Market Update reviews the top market headlines: IMF Upgrades Global Economic Outlook, US Consumer Credit Accelerates in February, US Manufacturing and Services Sectors Surge in March

Top Three Market Headlines 

IMF Upgrades Global Economic Outlook: Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its estimate for global growth to 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022. This represents an upgrade of 0.5% and 0.2% respectively from January and marks the fastest projected growth since 1980. Several factors have bolstered the IMF’s global outlook, including unprecedented global fiscal spending, central banks’ commitment to zero interest rate policy, and a swift rollout of vaccines in developed nations like the United States. The IMF predicts an uneven recovery with developed countries growing at a much faster rate than emerging markets.

US Consumer Credit Accelerates in February: Consumer credit beat expectations in February, rising $27.6 billion from the previous month, the largest gain month over month since February 2017. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 10.1% to $8.1 billion, the largest monthly climb since December 2019. Non-revolving credit, which includes auto and school loans, increased at an annual rate of 7.3% to $19.5 billion. Federal government holdings of student loans comprise the largest portion of non-revolving credit, making up 46% of outstanding credit. The surge in borrowing indicates increased consumer confidence as the economy continues its rebound from pandemic-related lows.

US Manufacturing and Services Sectors Surge in March: The U.S. economy continued to recover in March, according to surveys of business executives released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Manufacturing index registered 64.7 in March, up from 60.8 the prior month. This was the highest reading since 1983. The services sector experienced similar growth in March as the ISM Services index rose to 63.7, the highest reading since data collection for the index began in 1997.

As of April 9, 2021 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World 2.04% 3.22% 7.94% 50.28%
S&P 500 2.76% 3.97% 10.39% 50.50%
Russell 2000 -0.46% 1.04% 13.87% 82.03%
MSCI EAFE 1.80% 2.52% 6.09% 43.85%
MSCI Emerging Markets -0.56% 1.09% 3.40% 52.98%
FTSE NAREIT 0.26% 2.31% 11.39% 25.80%
Bloomberg Commodity 0.23% 0.70% 7.67% 32.51%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate 0.40% 0.49% -2.90% 0.37%

AP News 4/6/2021, Bloomberg 4/5/21 Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single-member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation.