This Weekly Market Update reviews the top market headlines: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields Reach 1.5%, Consumer Spending Ticks Up in August, Consumer Confidence Weakens

Top Three Market Headlines

U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 1.5%: For the first time since June, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached 1.5% last week. The 10-year yield, which serves as an economic benchmark for borrowing rates, has risen steadily after hitting an early August low of 1.17%. The rise comes amid greater clarity from the Federal Reserve about plans to pare monthly bond purchases beginning in November and potentially raise interest rates next year, along with recent declines in coronavirus cases, which could rejuvenate consumer spending and economic activity.

Consumer Spending Ticks Up in August: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last week that U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose in August at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.8% from the prior month. The recent gain reflects increased spending for food and beverages as well as "other" nondurable goods including household supplies and recreational items. Services also had widespread increases, led by personal care, clothing services, housing, and healthcare. These gains were partly offset by a decrease in spending for motor vehicles and parts. At the same time, rising prices accounted for half of the dollar increase in spending, as the PCE price index rose 0.4% during the month.

Consumer Confidence Weakens: Consumer confidence continued to wane in September as concerns about the Delta variant and inflation weighed on outlooks. The Conference Board, a private research group, reported last week that its Consumer Confidence Index, which reflects consumers' current and six-month future outlooks for the economy and the labor market, fell to 109.3 in September from a revised 115.2 in August. Consumers' outlooks for both current and future business conditions declined from the prior month. The Index has now fallen nearly 20 points from a post-pandemic high of 128.9 in July.

As of October 4, 2021
Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -2.40% 0.41% 11.58% 27.31%
S&P 500 -2.19% 1.15% 17.26% 30.79%
Russell 2000 -0.24% 1.69% 14.31% 47.86%
MSCI EAFE -3.14% -0.76% 7.52% 24.46%
MSCI Emerging Markets -1.41% -0.52% -1.76% 17.29%
FTSE NAREIT -0.88% 1.55% 25.05% 36.11%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.97% 0.17% 29.34% 43.75%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate -0.12% 0.28% -1.28% -0.65%

Bureau of Economic Analysis 10/1/2021, The Conference Board 9/28, WSJ 9/28, WSJ 09/27/2021 . Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Investment advisory, named and independent fiduciary services are offered through Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC does not express an investment opinion regarding any specific commodity, sector or individual security. Unless otherwise expressly noted, the contents of this communication do not constitute securities or investment advice, nor should this communication be construed as an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC is a single-member, limited-liability company, with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. Neither Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC nor their affiliates provide accounting, legal or tax advice. The information provided cannot take into account all the various factors that may affect your particular situation, therefore you should consult your Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors consultant before acting upon any information or recommendation contained herein to discuss the suitability of the information/recommendation for your specific situation