This Weekly Financial Markets Update reviews the top market headlines: Inflation Accelerates in May, Consumer Sentiment Hits a Record Low, OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook

Top Three Market Headlines

Inflation Accelerates in May: The U.S. Department of Labor reported last week that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.0% in May from April, accelerating from a 0.3% pace in April. On an annual (year-over-year) basis, the CPI surged 8.6% in May, up from 8.3% in April; the 8.6% rise in May was the largest 12-month increase since December 1981. The "core" CPI, which excludes energy and food costs, in May registered a 0.6% increase on the month and a 6.0% annual rise. Energy prices were up 3.9% in May from the prior month alone, and rose a substantial 34.6% over the prior year. Meanwhile, the food index jumped 1.2% on the month in May and 10.1% on annual basis, the first 10%+ rise since March 1981.

Consumer Sentiment Hits a Record Low: The Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan plunged 8.2 points in June to 50.2, the lowest monthly reading on record (the index has been published monthly since 1978). The index, based on surveys of consumers about their outlook on the U.S. economy, has now plummeted 40% from its recent cycle high of 84.9 in March 2021. Meaningful declines were recorded in May in respondents' year-ahead outlook for business conditions and consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation. Weakness in the latter was largely driven by concerns about inflation, particularly gas prices.

OECD Slashes Global Growth Outlook: The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), an association of 38 countries across Europe, the Americas, and the Pacific, last week markedly cut its forecast for 2022 global economic growth from 4.5% to 3.0%. Key factors driving the incrementally lower forecast include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the effect of China's zero-COVID policy on global supply chains. The OECD also noted that many countries are dealing with rising inflation, particularly among food and energy products, which threatens to curtail spending on other items.

As of June 13, 2022 Week Quarter-To-Date Year-To-Date One-Year
MSCI All Country World -4.42% -12.44% -17.13% -12.25%
S&P 500 -5.04% -13.62% -17.60% -6.65%
Russell 2000 -4.37% -12.83% -19.39% -21.22%
MSCI EAFE -4.65% -10.51% -15.80% -16.04%
MSCI Emerging Markets -0.53% -7.10% -13.58% -21.69%
FTSE NAREIT -5.67% -16.22% -19.45% -8.64%
Bloomberg Commodity 1.23% 9.06% 36.92% 42.92%
Barclays U.S. Aggregate -1.52% -5.02% -10.65% -10.56%

Bloomberg 6/10/2022, WSJ 6/10/2022, BLS 6/10/2022, Univ. of Michigan, 6/9102022. Data from Morningstar Direct. Returns for periods greater than one year are annualized. Gallagher Fiduciary Advisors, LLC ("GFA") is an SEC Registered Investment Adviser that provides retirement, investment advisory, discretionary/named and independent fiduciary services. GFA is a limited liability company with Gallagher Benefit Services, Inc. as its single member. GFA may pay referral fees or other remuneration to employees of AJG or its affiliates or to independent contractors; such payments do not change our fee. Securities may be offered through Triad Advisors, LLC ("Triad"), member FINRA/SIPC. Triad is separately owned and other entities and/or marketing names, products or services referenced here are independent of Triad. Neither Triad, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co., GFA, their affiliates nor representatives provide accounting, legal or tax advice.