- The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.6% in March from the prior month and 2.6% over the prior year
- Total industrial production grew 1.4% in March
- U.S. retail sales rose 9.8% in March over the prior month, the strongest monthly increase since May 2020
Top Three Market Headlines
Consumer Prices Rise: The Labor Department reported last week that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.6% in March from February, the fastest monthly pace since August 2012. A 9.1% jump in gasoline prices fueled nearly half of the increase. On an annual basis, prices grew 2.6%, the biggest increase since August 2018—though part of this rise reflected depressed comparison prices in the prior year that occurred as the economy shut down. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, the “core” CPI rose more modestly in March, at rates of 0.3% and 1.6% versus the prior month and year, respectfully.
Industrial Production Rebounds: After declining in February due to weather-related impacts, industrial production—a measure of manufacturing, mining, and utility output—started to rebound in March, gaining 1.4% from the prior month. On the bright side, auto and mine production increased 2.8% and 5.7% in March, respectively; however, warmer weather caused an 11.4% plunge in utility output—the largest drop since 1972—which detracted from overall results. Moreover, output numbers were suppressed by disruptions to the global supply chain resulting from the blocked Suez Canal.
Retail Sales Surge: Sales at retail establishments jumped in March, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. Data showed that sales at online retailers, restaurants, and brick-and-mortar stores increased 9.8% from the prior month, the strongest monthly increase since last May. While gains were broad-based in the month, sales at restaurants and bars were especially strong, growing by 13% from the prior month and 36% from the year prior. Additional government stimulus payments distributed throughout March and a continued rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine helped drive the strong spending growth rate.